April Fool Election

I love this story today in the Mirror..apparently because the Tories have fallen 1% in the polls the game is now on and an election should be held; The Tories are allegedly in disarray.

The truth is only exposed in the last paragraph. 'Allies' of Brown are so fearful of a budget and the horrendous news it will bring that they won't have one before an early April election.

It is so pathetic..look where is Gordon Brown now with his "I saved the World rhetoric."

Anyway, I hope it happens the sooner we have an election the soonere we can start the path to recovery.

And with that I am off on business for a few days to freezing (-20oC) Moscow, so may be light blooging from me. Hopefully BQ and ND can keep you informed and entertained.

Knaves

Mr Quango told us about the board-games popular with his Parliamentary pals. In between making outrageous expense claims, they like playing cards, as well ...


Brag: a favourite of politicians, you just make it up as you go along, the more extreme the better

2-card Clegg: for small parties, when you are a card or two short of a full deck

Strip-Jack-Naked (aka Man of Straw): one player tries to conceal cards up his sleeve and the others have to find out what he’s hiding. It is rumoured that the little community of Chilcot intends to hold a public Strip-Jack-Naked tournament shortly

Beggar-my-neighbour: originated in Northern and Scottish constituencies but now popular throughout the land. Players must declare ‘I have a bad back’, and demand that everyone else hands over money in perpetuity. Game is over when only one player is left who hasn't declared

(There is a variation on Beggar which is not played in polite circles)

Stud poke 'er: for two players and a small private office: John Prescott considers himself a master, but the real champion is Steve ‘Shagger’ Norris. John Major was sometimes known to indulge

Find-the-lady: guess which of three, each in a face-down position, is in fact a lady. Increasingly rare in UK politics: Blair's Cabinet was the first since 1929 where it was not possible to play this game, and Brown's has been just as bad (though some players keep calling out 'Harriet Harman', based on a misunderstanding of the rules)

Any others you know of ?

ND

That Ofgem Report In Full

I may a bit more forgiving towards Ofgem than CU, and as part of our usual service to readers have read their Project Discovery document which confirms everyone’s worst fears about the looming electricity shortfall.

It’s a bit like the Butler Review – a lot of good stuff but as knee-jerk civil servants they’ve felt obliged to encrypt it & we’re supposed to decode for ourselves. It’s even quietly subversive in places:

“If [sic] reductions in carbon dioxide emissions domestically is seen as important …” (4.21)

If !?! What official body has dared to question the received wisdom like that in the past ten years ? And by way of further heresy, they register the point (albeit obliquely) that wind-power is getting too easy a ride, suggesting that price signals for balancing and peaking problems should be ‘sharpened’ (= greater penalty for intermittent output). Also this:

"The risk is that more generous subsidies are required … in order to stimulate the desired low carbon investment. Should carbon prices subsequently rise, low carbon generators may enjoy super-normal profits at the expense of consumers." (3.21)

We should be grateful these things can still be said, if only in code.

They shy away from the actual infeasibility of government targets: the coded statement is ‘There is a need for unprecedented levels of investment to be sustained over many years’ (a point I first made to the DTI in 2006 but they weren’t amused). This is a pity as a knock-down proof of outright infeasibility can be given.

Ofgem satisfies itself with worrying about a range of things including, most tellingly, the ‘risk of prices being greater than necessary’. Yes indeed - particularly if the 'possible policy measure' of reinventing a central energy monopoly/monopsony is adopted, Heaven help us.

We've cracked the code. Prices greater than necessary. And super-profits for the subsidy-wallahs. Yes indeed.

ND

What did QE do?

It seems that the support for asset prices thesis was about right, that is quite a drop in the FTSE. The AIM and FTSE 205 is even worse and these track more closely the UK economy:

AIM taking it hard today,

FTSE250 above-  a reflection on the real UK economy this year...

Question Time. With Galloway and Short.

Question Time, the BBC's premier political debate programme comes from Coventry on Thursday 4 February.

The panel are the former Lord Chancellor Lord Falconer, the shadow secretary of state for work and pensions Theresa May MP, the former Labour and now Independent MP Clare Short, the Respect MP George Galloway and the Daily Mail columnist Melanie Phillips.

BQ guess q's

1.Blair/Claire Chilcot special for posturing Galloway and Ms Short

2. Climategate emails and faulty data for melanie to froth over

3. Expenses for MPs

4.Toyota should recall all cars.

5. Defence budget cuts by the former Chancellor

John Terry if there is time.

Miss C.D.

1. Claire Short's testimony
2. Dementia care
3. MP expenses
4. Gilts/QE = end of recession
5. GP out of hours cover -

Pope's visit.

Your best 3 guesses in the comments.