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John Rentoul

John Rentoul is chief political commentator for The Independent on Sunday, and visiting fellow at Queen Mary, University of London, where he teaches contemporary history. Previously he was chief leader writer for The Independent. He has written a biography of Tony Blair, whom he admired more at the end of his time in office than he did at the beginning.

You can contact John in the comments area or email him at j.rentoul@independent.co.uk

TotalPolitics - Top Blogs - Media
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Recycle for Christmas

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Thursday, 24 December 2009 at 08:55 am
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Today's prize for environmentally friendly journalism goes to The Guardian, which managed to lead its front page with the recycled story that Jack Straw would like us to think that he tried at the last moment to dissuade Tony Blair from joining the Iraq invasion.

Of course, it is of interest that Straw has been listed to give evidence to the Iraq Inquiry, at which he will presumably be asked about his note of 16 March 2003. But a front-page lead? That might imply that the story of the note itself is new, an inference some people inevitably draw.

It is not. It was reported by John Kampfner in his book Blair's Wars, serialised in the Mail on Sunday on 14 September 2003.
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"An absolute effing disaster"

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Tuesday, 22 December 2009 at 05:52 pm
ImageWell, that doesn't happen often: politician admits to off-the-record comments. John Hutton, the former Defence Secretary, was thought to have told Nick Robinson, the BBC's political editor on 7 September 2006 (the day the Brownite coup forced Tony Blair to hand in his 12-months' notice):

It would be an absolute effing disaster if Gordon Brown was PM, and I'll do anything in my power to effing stop him.

(It turned out that everything in his power was not enough.) 

Thanks to Nick Robinson, here is the transcript of Hutton on the Eddie Mair programme on BBC Radio 5 Live:

Mair
: You said it. Didn't you?  

Hutton
: I did say it. Yes, I did. Yeah. Let's just get that over with.  

Mair
: And what do you think of him now?  

Hutton
: My opinion has changed of Gordon. I think he has - and certainly, in all of his dealings with me, showed nothing but, sort of, a great deal of support and help during my time as a minister. So I personally have no criticisms of Gordon's performance as prime minister at all. I think he has been a tremendously hard-working man, who has really put, as I said, his heart and soul into it.
 
What a shame. I liked the theory that it was Tessa Jowell.
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Tories slump to, er, 12-point lead

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Tuesday, 22 December 2009 at 01:45 pm
I saw Iain Dale had a taxi-driver moment when Ipsos-MORI reported a 17-point Conservative lead rather than the three-point gap that was rumoured:

How can you take seriously a polling organisation which shows such huge monthly fluctuations? The last three months have shown the Tory lead go from 17% down to 6% and back up to 17%. Ridiculous.

Now some of the comrades are excited about today's ComRes poll in The Independent, which shows a nine-point lead, as opposed to the 17 points in its previous poll for The Independent on Sunday.

Those of you who do not know about sampling variation, look it up on Google. Those of you who do, look at Anthony Wells's UK Polling Report Polling Average. The Conservative lead is at 12 points, as opposed to 12 points a week ago, and 14 points two months ago.

Update: Anthony Wells emails to say that he had not updated his average at the time I wrote this, so the Tory lead is not 13 points as I wrote a few hours ago but an earth-shattering 12 points. The trouble is that even if the Daily Mail put "No Change in Underlying Poll Trend!" in two-inch-high type on the front page, no one would think it much of a story.
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Will this be the game-changer that Brown needs?

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Monday, 21 December 2009 at 09:41 pm
The televised election debates, that is. Number 199 of my Questions to Which the Answer is No is asked by Peter Hoskin at Coffee House.

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"The customer's usually wrong"

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Monday, 21 December 2009 at 03:50 pm
ImageGreat interview with Michael O'Leary, boss of Ryanair, in Saturday's Financial Times. Especially this bit:

“MBA students come out with, ‘The customer’s always right,’” he says, adopting a whiny voice. “Horseshit! The customer’s usually wrong! And, ‘My staff is my most important asset.’ Bullshit! Staff is usually your biggest cost!”

Via Marbury.

Illustration: James Ferguson
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Nopenhagen

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Sunday, 20 December 2009 at 04:22 pm
ImageHow come the finest diplomatic and political minds in the West didn't see the Chinese veto coming? Copenhagen has been planned for two years and yet no one seems to have thought to find out if the leaders of the country producing the most greenhouse gas would sign up for what most other countries would accept. Or, if the Chinese said they would, whether they meant it.

I recommend Michael McCarthy's report and question-and-answer guide in The Independent on Sunday today. Also worth reading: the magnificent pessimistic rage of Polly Toynbee (in the course of which she proclaims social democracy as an optimistic creed), and Tim Collard at the Telegraph, stating what should have been obvious: don't blame the Chinese; they are part of the solution.

The relative failure of the Copenhagen summit has a more parochial implication: Gordon Brown won't get the credit he so richly deserves for a feat of negotiating energy and skill that helped to solve all the main issues apart from the big one, the great stonewall of China.

The lazy assumptions that I shared - that Brown hates international meetings, that he is shy, awkward and rude, and therefore a poor negotiator - turn out to be wrong. I am told by his spin doctors that he used his relationship with Barack Obama to help save the summit as it approached meltdown on Wednesday and Thursday. They tell me that he chaired difficult meetings brilliantly, and that he chaired so many of them, with such energy and stamina, that he seemed to be directing the whole show.

What is really extraordinary is that they are right. Just because they are the Prime Minister's spin doctors does not mean that they should always be disbelieved. Because I have also spoken to other people who have no interest in talking Brown up but who have seen him in action. They say that he is really good at the multi-dimensional chess of international summitry; that, as chairman of many of the key meetings, he has proved himself an effective judge of summit psychology, allowing people to feel that they have had their say but keeping the business moving along. Obviously, the UK, as a part of the European Union delegation, had limited leverage on the geopolitical power play between the US and China, but that limited hand was played, I am told, as well as it could have been.
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The seven-day class war

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Saturday, 19 December 2009 at 10:24 pm
ImageWhat a productive error that was. I expressed myself clumsily in The Independent on Sunday last weekend. Don Paskini responded on his blog and at Liberal Conspiracy. I tried to express myself more clearly here:

The bonus tax is popular in the short term (on the "tax anybody but me" principle), but I think it will have a negative effect on perceptions of Labour over the long term because it makes the party look as if it doesn’t like success.

Then everyone else joined in. Anthony Wells chipped in at UK Polling Report. Sunder Katwala had a go at Next Left. Tom Harris was typically forceful in his "Class war is for losers". I also had an intelligent commenter called mjtmjt (his real name), who came in on Paskini's side of the argument.

Daniel Finkelstein
had the last word yesterday, giving me the sort of name-check that I would put up in lights at the top of this blog if I knew how, and endorsing Wells. As he says, Wells summed up the whole spat brilliantly thus:


Polls on whether the public agree with a policy or not do not always tell the whole story. When looking at a policy there is the direct effect of whether people agree with it or not, and the indirect effect of what associating themselves with that policy will do to a party’s image.


The example I normally use is not taxing the wealthy, but immigration. Polls consistently show that immigration is an issue people care about, and that they want harsher restrictions upon it.


Surely immigration would be a winning issue for the Conservatives? Not necessarily, since they have also spent the last four years trying to change their image to look less reactionary and “nasty”. If they made anti-immigration a key message, it might itself be popular, but would risk making them look bigoted and unpleasant.


It’s the same with taxing the rich. If tax hikes are necessary, polls always show that people much prefer them to hit the rich. Equally, penalising bankers is a route to easy popularity.


The downside is that it risks making Labour look like a party that doesn’t like success or aspiration, an image that Tony Blair managed to shed.
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The media's new bias

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Friday, 18 December 2009 at 08:53 pm
Quotation of the day from Martin Kettle:

The modern media now has a collective oppositional self-interest not just to particular parties or class interests, as in the past, but to the very idea of government and politics itself.

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Out-pedanted

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Friday, 18 December 2009 at 07:44 pm
A super pedant takes issue with my earlier post attempting to out-pedant Paul Waugh on the spelling of Solicitor General. He said hyphen; I said not. It turns out that Hansard says Solicitor-General. But then it not only also hyphenates Advocate-General but Attorney-General too. ImageImage
Has she got one? Patricia Scotland (left) and Vera Baird.

I think we put that down to one of the charming eccentricities of ancient British tradition.

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Dividing-line politics at its most crude

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Friday, 18 December 2009 at 02:08 pm
ImageEd Balls, the Schools Secretary, gives us dividing-line politics at its most crude in his column for Tribune today. It is not on the Tribune site yet, but it is here. This is the key passage:

The Tories ... want to cut the deficit faster. That leaves them with a revenue gap of billions of pounds each year, which can only be filled by across the board cuts to public services, a massive rise in VAT or most likely a combination of the two.  

Of course, raising VAT is an option Ministers have been advised to consider in the past. In 2001 when we needed to raise billions of pounds to transform the National Health Service, there were some who favoured putting up VAT rather than national insurance.  

But in 2001, Gordon and I rejected that advice. We said if you put up VAT, it's going to hit people's bills for clothes, petrol, household goods, and other essentials. It's going to affect millions of pensioners and people who are out of work, and because VAT is the only tax which everyone pays the poorest people in society will end up paying the most as a proportion of their income.  

We said the fair thing to do is to increase National Insurance, so that only people who are in work will pay, and the people who can afford the most will pay the most. That’s the same choice the government made last week.   The truth is it's the Tories who are the party of VAT. They doubled it to 15 per cent in 1979, raised it again when they abolished the Poll Tax in 1991, then tried to charge the full rate of VAT on domestic fuel and power in 1993.

I like the "Gordon and I" - in 2001 Balls was only Brown's chief economic adviser. But the attempt to paint the Conservatives as "the party of VAT" is (a) unsubtle and (b) an implied confirmation of reports that "Gordon and I" forced the Chancellor to reject a VAT rise in favour of another hike in National Insurance in last week's pre-Budget report.

Balls has a fair point that NI is more progressive - better related to ability to pay - than VAT, but against that it is also true that it is a "tax on jobs". (Nor is it wise to remind us of Labour's defeat of VAT on domestic fuel in 1993, one of the most ungreen and retrograde policies of the past two decades.)

Whoever forms the next government, all taxes will have to rise, including VAT. All taxes have drawbacks. This is one dividing line that politics does not need.

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Does anyone read this rubbish any longer?

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Friday, 18 December 2009 at 01:43 pm
Over at Eagle Eye, this blog's other home, aardvark11 asks number 198 in my series of Questions to Which the Answer is No:

Seriously, though, does anyone (apart from Blairsupporter) even read this constant rubbish any longer?

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What the Solicitor General is missing

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Friday, 18 December 2009 at 12:40 pm
Top pedantry from Paul Waugh. Reporting on the Solicitor-General's dog, he asks of Vera Baird's title: "Anyone know why it's hyphenated, but Attorney General isn't?"

I can answer that one. It is not hyphenated. Neither the Solicitor General nor the Attorney General take a hyphen, according to the Law Officers' website, and the house style of most newspapers, including The Independent titles. Nor does the Advocate General of Scotland, or that of Northern Ireland, when it is created.

Who said the internet dumbs us down? 

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Boycott Baroness Ashton

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Friday, 18 December 2009 at 11:54 am
ImageI did not know that one third of the members of the Israeli parliament have supported a plan to boycott British goods. Catherine Ashton, the European Union's new High Representative (right) has upset them. Nor did I know that Tony Blair had promised to amend our law so that Israeli political leaders could visit this country without facing the prospect of arrest. Nor do I know why he failed to do it. But I found this commentary by Anshel Pfeffer of Haaretz fascinating:

Three years ago, then prime minister Tony Blair promised his Israeli counterparts that the legislation allowing private citizens in Britain to obtain arrest warrants for foreigners suspected of carrying out war crimes would be amended. And he meant it. No one had to point out to Mr. Blair that with the wars taking place in Iraq and Afghanistan, he, his colleagues and the officers of the British Army and their American allies could also find themselves in the dock. Blair's successor Gordon Brown has also made similar promises.

So why was this amendment never put into effect? Not because the Labour government could not find the necessary majority in parliament. And the leaders of the Conservative Party have also privately assured the Israeli embassy in London that it would support such a motion. No, the British government hesitated and prevaricated because they knew full well just how downright unpopular such a move would be. They would have been eviscerated by the local press, by every single human-rights movement, by the Archbishops, the professors and by the great majority of their own grassroots memberships. For a weak and deeply unpopular government, this was too much to contemplate.

In other words, while Israel may be able to comfort itself with a degree of sympathy from Britain's political leadership, it has lost the understanding of the rest of the country's opinion makers. Some of you may be asking, So what? Britian's days as a superpower are long over. True, but in the arena of international media and public opinion, Britain still punches way above its natural weight. The maiden speech given by Catherine Ashton - who is from Britain and the European Union's new high representative for foreign affairs and security policy - in which she roundly criticized Israeli policies is just the latest striking example. The response from Israeli politicians, a proposal to boycott British products, already signed by a third of the Knesset, is risible.

Just as the connection Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman made between global anti-Semitism and the arrest warrants in his speech on Wednesday is pointless, neither is another round of moaning about Israel's "hasbara failure" going to get us anywhere. The point at which a change in PR tactics might have remedied Israel's international situation has long passed.
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Should homosexuals face execution?

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Wednesday, 16 December 2009 at 03:55 pm
Another Questions to Which the Answer is No special: this is number 197, the title of a discussion forum hosted by the BBC. It appears that a law is being debated in the Ugandan parliament on Friday that proposes:

Life imprisonment for those convicted of a homosexual act;
The death sentence where the offender has HIV, is a "serial offender" or the other person is under 18;
Imprisonment for seven years for "attempted homosexuality".

I wouldn't want to spend too much time in the Comments, but note that 182 of 395 comments have been rejected by the BBC moderator so far.

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Is it Day 15 already?

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Wednesday, 16 December 2009 at 02:17 pm
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Captain Scarlett has been drawn into the Chilcot inquiry now (he looks more and more like that California governor); can the Thunderbirds be far behind?

I think we all know how to do this now, but just to recap in respect of this morning's front-page report in The Independent:

(a) It's not new;

(b) It fits at least one of several interlocking anti-war narratives;

(c) Nobody lied.
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Indiscretion of youth

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Wednesday, 16 December 2009 at 01:05 pm
ImageTom Harris is cross. He waited eight and a half years for House Magazine to write a profile of him (pdf), and in its first paragraph it accuses him of having voted for the Social Nemocratic Party.

That'll teach you, you traitorous right-wing splitter. If you vote for a party that is one letter different from the Satanic Nasty Party, you have only yourself to blame if 26 years later some teenager who's never heard of Bill Rodgers makes a typing error.

Photograph: Yes, that was considered media friendly in 1983

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Ghost at the Inquiry

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Wednesday, 16 December 2009 at 11:31 am
Which two groups of people hate Tony Blair the most? Journalists and the culturati. So if Blair has had a rough ride in the past week (that Fern Britton interview, it was obviously Blair "preparing the ground" for his appearance at the Chilcot inquiry; media manipulation, obviously; good thing the media didn't fall for it), just wait until the new year.

ImageThe worlds of journalism and culture converge, probably in February, with Blair's evidence to the Iraq Inquiry and the premiere in Berlin of The Ghost Writer, Roman Polanski's film of Robert Harris's novel, starring Blair (right).

I've commented on Harris's double standard here, unable to distinguish between someone who has admitted a crime and someone Harris thinks ought to be guilty of one. (Apparently, what Blair really did wrong in Harris's eyes, according to this interview in Frankfurter Rundschau translated by Julie, was to fail to introduce the euro.)

Just two random recent examples of how making films gives people special authority to pronounce on how everyone is innocent until proved Tony Blair. James Cameron says that Avatar is an attempt to open people's eyes to why America "went down a path that cost several hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives". (That assertion is not soundly based.) And Dame Judi Dench is already angry about the Chilcot inquiry:

‘I am riveted by the current Iraq inquiry, though angry already because I feel it will end with a report and nobody’s actually going to be arraigned for what happened.’ Would she like to see Bush or Blair in court? ‘I’d like the buck to stop somewhere and know where that buck stops.’
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Was going to war a cock-up or conspiracy?

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Tuesday, 15 December 2009 at 02:15 pm
An unusual achievement by Sebastian Shakespeare in the Evening Standard, managing to ask two Questions to Which the Answer is No in a single headline. That's numbers 195 and 196.

Hats off.

And thanks to my correspondent who pointed it out.

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Tories slump to 12-point lead

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Tuesday, 15 December 2009 at 01:08 pm
Haven't had time to comment on the ICM poll in The Guardian this morning. It has a nine-point Tory lead. So did YouGov in The Sunday Times at the weekend. ComRes had 17 points in The Independent on Sunday. UK Polling report put the average lead at 12 points.

If anyone thinks this looks hopeful for Labour, because the conventional calculation is that the Tories need to be 10 points ahead to secure the tiniest majority, remember two things:

(a) the election will be fought in Labour-held seats, in most of which a sitting MP who has claimed expenses will be fighting a challenger who has not;

(b) in a television election campaign focused on the personalities of Gordon Brown versus David Cameron, which party is likely to gain ground?
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Not so lonely

Posted by John Rentoul
  • Tuesday, 15 December 2009 at 12:28 pm
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The media (including internet) consensus against Tony Blair on Iraq is overwhelming, but it is not complete.

David Aaronovitch in The Times does some real reporting of the Chilcot inquiry proceedings: what is significant is that, as I have argued, the failure to prepare for the occupation of Iraq is unlikely to produce findings favourable to Blair or George Bush.

Neil D at Harry's Place and Norman Geras try, again, to push back against some of the tendentious reporting of Blair's comments to Fern Britton in Sunday's documentary. (Watch it here; a transcript of the relevant sections is below; make your own mind up.) Even Chris Ames, from an anti-war perspective, points out how consistent Blair has been:

What Blair has said is remarkably reminiscent of an entry in Alastair Campbell’s published diaries, 2 April 2002. The entry covers a meeting at Chequers to plan the war:

“”We discussed whether the central aim was WMD or regime change. Piggott’s view was that it was WMD. TB felt it was regime change in part because of WMD but more broadly because of the threat to the region and the world.”

Interesting that obsessives on both sides of the argument are aware of how much recycling and selective presentation of old material is going on.

Oh, and Melanie Phillips gives the Coverage Rebuttal Service a plug here.

Thanks, Mel. Not sure if that helps.

Blair interviewed by Fern Britton ... )
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