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Trump score How often Paul votes in line with Trump's position | Trump margin Trump's share of the vote in the 2016 election in Kentucky minus Clinton's | Predicted score How often Paul is expected to support Trump based on Trump's 2016 margin | Trump plus-minus Difference between Paul’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores |
|---|---|---|---|
87.2% | +29.8 | 91.3% | -4.1 |
Trump score How often Paul votes in line with Trump's position | 87.2% |
|---|---|
| Trump margin Trump's share of the vote in the 2016 election in Kentucky minus Clinton's | +29.8 |
Predicted score How often Paul is expected to support Trump based on Trump's 2016 margin | 91.3% |
Trump plus-minus Difference between Paul’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | -4.1 |
| Date | Measure | Trump Position | Paul Vote | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 7 | Raising debt limit/extending government funding/Hurricane Harvey relief (80-17) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote No | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 66.5% | Plus-minus -66.5 |
| Aug. 1 | Nomination of Christopher A. Wray to be director of the FBI (92-5) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| July 28 | Senate "skinny repeal" health care bill (49-51) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 92.6% | Plus-minus +7.4 |
| July 27 | Imposing sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea (98-2) | Trump Position oppose | Paul Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 1.6% | Plus-minus +98.4 |
| July 26 | Repealing major parts of the Affordable Care Act, with a transition period for replacement (45-55) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 86.0% | Plus-minus +14.0 |
| July 25 | The American Health Care Act of 2017 (Senate motion to proceed) (51-50) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 92.9% | Plus-minus +7.1 |
| June 14 | Imposing sanctions on Russia (97-2) | Trump Position oppose | Paul Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 4.7% | Plus-minus +95.3 |
| June 13 | Opposing the sale of some arms to Saudi Arabia (47-53) | Trump Position oppose | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 95.5% | Plus-minus -95.5 |
| May 11 | Nomination of Robert Lighthizer to be United States trade representative (82-14) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.3% | Plus-minus +0.7 |
| May 10 | Repeal of a rule requiring energy companies to reduce waste and emissions (49-51) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 92.6% | Plus-minus +7.4 |
| May 4 | The 2017 fiscal year appropriations bill (79-18) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 65.9% | Plus-minus -65.9 |
| May 3 | Repeal of a rule that allowed a new type of state-based retirement plan (50-49) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 90.7% | Plus-minus +9.3 |
| April 27 | Nomination of R. Alexander Acosta to be secretary of labor (60-38) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.9% | Plus-minus +0.1 |
| April 24 | Nomination of Sonny Perdue to be secretary of agriculture (87-11) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| April 7 | Nomination of Neil Gorsuch to be associate justice of the Supreme Court (54-45) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.8% | Plus-minus +0.2 |
| April 6 | Whether to keep the Senate cloture requirement for Supreme Court nominees at 60 votes (48-52) | Trump Position oppose | Paul Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 93.8% | Plus-minus +6.2 |
| March 30 | Repeal of a rule requiring state and local governments to distribute federal funds to qualified health centers even if they perform abortions (51-50) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 92.9% | Plus-minus +7.1 |
| March 30 | Repeal of a rule that allowed a new type of retirement plan established by local governments (50-49) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 91.8% | Plus-minus +8.2 |
| March 23 | Repeal of an FCC rule barring internet providers from sharing data on customers' activities (50-48) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Not voting | Agree with Trump? —— | Likelihood of agreement 93.5% | Plus-minus —— |
| March 22 | Repeal of a Department of Labor rule regarding records of work-related injuries and illnesses (50-48) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Not voting | Agree with Trump? —— | Likelihood of agreement 93.5% | Plus-minus —— |
| March 15 | Nomination of Daniel Coats to be director of national intelligence (85-12) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 98.8% | Plus-minus -98.8 |
| March 14 | Repeal of a Department of Labor rule on drug testing of applicants for unemployment compensation (51-48) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 93.6% | Plus-minus +6.4 |
| March 9 | Repeal of a Department of Education rule on school accountability (50-49) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 93.0% | Plus-minus +7.0 |
| March 8 | Repeal of a Department of Education rule on teacher preparation programs (59-40) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| March 7 | Repeal of changes to Bureau of Land Management planning rules (51-48) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 93.6% | Plus-minus +6.4 |
| March 6 | Repeal of a rule requiring some federal contractors to report labor violations (49-48) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 93.2% | Plus-minus +6.8 |
| March 2 | Nomination of Rick Perry to be secretary of energy (62-37) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| March 2 | Nomination of Ben Carson to be secretary of housing and urban development (58-41) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| March 1 | Nomination of Ryan Zinke to be secretary of the interior (68-31) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| Feb. 28 | Nomination of Wilbur L. Ross Jr. to be secretary of commerce (72-27) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 98.9% | Plus-minus +1.1 |
| Feb. 17 | Nomination of Scott Pruitt to be administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (52-46) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.8% | Plus-minus +0.2 |
| Feb. 16 | Nomination of Mick Mulvaney to be director of the Office of Management and Budget (51-49) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 93.5% | Plus-minus +6.5 |
| Feb. 15 | Repeal of a rule requiring the Social Security Administration to submit information to the national background-check system (57-43) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| Feb. 14 | Nomination of Linda E. McMahon to be administrator of the Small Business Administration (81-19) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.9% | Plus-minus +0.1 |
| Feb. 13 | Nomination of David J. Shulkin to be secretary of veterans affairs (100-0) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| Feb. 13 | Nomination of Steven T. Mnuchin to be secretary of the treasury (53-47) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 97.3% | Plus-minus +2.7 |
| Feb. 10 | Nomination of Tom Price to be secretary of health and human services (52-47) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 94.7% | Plus-minus +5.3 |
| Feb. 8 | Nomination of Jeff Sessions to be attorney general (52-47) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 97.2% | Plus-minus +2.8 |
| Feb. 7 | Nomination of Betsy DeVos to be secretary of education (51-50) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 92.9% | Plus-minus +7.1 |
| Feb. 3 | Repeal of a rule requiring energy companies to disclose payments to foreign governments (52-47) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 93.8% | Plus-minus +6.2 |
| Feb. 2 | Repeal of the stream protection rule (54-45) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| Feb. 1 | Nomination of Rex W. Tillerson to be secretary of state (56-43) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.2% | Plus-minus +0.8 |
| Jan. 31 | Nomination of Elaine L. Chao to be secretary of transportation (93-6) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| Jan. 24 | Nomination of Nikki R. Haley to be ambassador to the United Nations (96-4) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.7% | Plus-minus +0.3 |
| Jan. 23 | Nomination of Mike Pompeo to be director of the CIA (66-32) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 96.8% | Plus-minus -96.8 |
| Jan. 20 | Nomination of John F. Kelly to be secretary of homeland security (88-11) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.8% | Plus-minus +0.2 |
| Jan. 20 | Nomination of James Mattis to be secretary of defense (98-1) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| Jan. 12 | Waiver allowing James Mattis to become secretary of defense (81-17) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.4% | Plus-minus +0.6 |
| Jan. 12 | Budget resolution to repeal the Affordable Care Act (51-48) | Trump Position support | Paul Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 91.7% | Plus-minus -91.7 |
| Average | 87.2% | 91.3% | -4.1 | |||
See more about Rand Paul at ProPublica
Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump's 2016 vote margin in every member's state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member's vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »
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