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5 Key Stories: 6/20/21 – 6/27/21

June 27th, 2021 at 2:33pm CST by Zachary Links

Been busy? Let’s get you caught up with a look back at some of the NFL’s biggest stories from the past week:

  • The drama between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers continues. Lately, there’s been speculation that the quarterback could opt out of the season, saving him millions in fines should he choose to skip 2021. However, that’s not likely to happen. The deadline for Rodgers and the rest of the NFL players will come this week, on July 2.
  • The Jets made a serious upgrade to their offensive line this week, signing longtime Washington starter Morgan Moses to man the right tackle position. Ron Rivera & Co. chose cap room over having the veteran, but the Jets got him at a reasonable rate — it’s a one-year, $3.6MM deal with incentives that can take him up to $5.3MM. According to Pro Football Focus, 2020 might have been Moses’ best year yet — he placed top-20 for tackles, up from so-so scores across 2017-2019. Barring any surprises, he’ll start at RT across from Mekhi Becton with George Fant and Chuma Edoga coming off the bench.
  • The Steelers also continued their offensive line shakeup, parting ways with longtime guard David DeCastro. In his place, they signed former Pro Bowler Trai Turner. Turner, 28, comes to Pittsburgh with 89 career starts, making him the most senior member of the offensive line. The Steelers saved about $8MM by cutting DeCastro and spent ~$3MM to ink Turner. DeCastro, by his own admission, is still struggling with a chronic ankle issue. If Turner is healthy, it’s a clear win for the Steelers — they’ll have upgraded their interior while pocketing about $5MM in savings.
  • Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard hasn’t backed down from his contract demands. He’s “dug in,” per one report, even though he has four years to go on his contract. Last year, Howard graded out as the second-best corner in the league, per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics. Meanwhile, his $15MM AAV places him as just the sixth-highest paid cornerback in football, one spot behind teammate Byron Jones.
  • The Browns also have some business to take care of with Baker Mayfield, but they’ve yet to exchange figures. For what it’s worth, both sides are preaching patience. Besides, Mayfield would be comfortable waiting — fellow draft classmates Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson could be on the verge of $40MM/year extensions, raising the roof on his own asking price.
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PFR Originals: Patriots, Bucs, Broncos

June 27th, 2021 at 2:17pm CST by Zachary Links

In case you missed it, here’s a look back at some of our recent originals:

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Vikings S Harrison Smith On Contract Situation

June 27th, 2021 at 12:12pm CST by Rory Parks

Vikings safety Harrison Smith is entering the final year of the five-year, $51.25MM extension he signed in July 2016. There have been no public reports of contract talks between Smith and the Vikes, and reading between the lines of recent comments Smith made to reporters, it doesn’t sound like substantive discussions have taken place.

“I don’t have a solid answer for you, but obviously I’ve been here going on 10 [seasons] and would love to be here in the future,” Smith said (via Ben Goessling of the Star Tribune). “Going to look at those things and see what we can do. That’s about it right now.”

2020 was a difficult year for the Minnesota defense. The team was among the league’s worst in terms of points allowed per game and net yards per pass attempt, and Smith frequently had to cover for his less experienced teammates in the secondary. The Vikings made a concerted effort to address their deficiencies in that regard, adding veterans Patrick Peterson, Mackensie Alexander, Bashaud Breeland, and Xavier Woods to the defensive backfield.

Despite the influx of new pieces, the hope is that the full traditional offseason program of 2021 will allow those pieces to gel in a way that just wasn’t possible last year in the COVID-marred landscape. However, all of the new free agent acquisitions are working on one-year deals, and given Smith’s current status as a free agent-to-be, the Vikings could be looking at another major secondary overhaul in 2022.

An extension for Smith would help to add some stability to that outlook, but it’s not as though stability is the only thing that Smith offers. Though he is now 32 and saw his streak of five consecutive Pro Bowl nods come to an end last year, he still managed to intercept five passes, which tied a career-high mark. His tackle numbers (89 total takedowns) were in line with what they have been throughout his career, and he continues to be an advanced metrics darling, having graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th-best safety out of 94 qualifiers.

The safety market dipped considerably after Smith inked his big-money deal, but it is once again on the rise. Although the Notre Dame product might not get the $15MM+ AAV that currently tops the market, another typical season should put him in line for a multi-year pact with an eight-figure annual average.

Whether such a deal comes from the Vikings or another club remains to be seen. After all, Minnesota was open to trading Smith at last year’s deadline, though rival clubs were not keen to part with draft capital to acquire his services.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Browns, Baker Mayfield Have Not Exchanged Proposals

June 27th, 2021 at 11:32am CST by Rory Parks

Baker Mayfield‘s agent, Jack Mills, recently predicted that his client and the Browns would agree to terms on a contract extension this summer. But that might be a bit optimistic. According to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, Mayfield’s camp and the Browns have not even exchanged proposals yet, and she suggests that a new deal might not get done until late October.

Why then? Because at the start of the 2020 season, for which there were no spring workouts and no preseason, Mayfield was still getting used to head coach Kevin Stefanski‘s offense. But as Cabot observes, Mayfield was Pro Football Focus’ second-highest-rated QB over the final seven games of the year, and both player and team believe that is more representative of who Mayfield is (even though he did have some quality performances over the first few weeks of the campaign as well). By waiting until the end of October to authorize a massive extension, the Browns will essentially have a full season of data on how Mayfield performs in a quality offense that he completely understands.

The Browns are also working on new contracts for other key members of the roster, like CB Denzel Ward, RB Nick Chubb, and G Wyatt Teller (this is the first we have publicly heard that the club is talking contract with Teller and Ward, though it’s hardly a surprise). The front office might want to get those less costly pacts out of the way before turning its full attention to the Mayfield situation.

And Mayfield, who is perfectly content to bet on himself, also has reason to wait. If draftmates Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson sign extensions with AAVs in excess of $40MM, Cabot says Mayfield will not “settle” for a $35MM AAV, which Spotrac currently considers to be his market value.

At this point, Cleveland and Mayfield have no doubt that a deal will get done. It’s really just a matter of when.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Aaron Rodgers Unlikely To Opt Out Of 2021 Season

June 27th, 2021 at 10:10am CST by Rory Parks

When the NFL and NFLPA agreed that players can opt out of the 2021 season, regardless of whether they have been deemed as a high risk for COVID-19 complications, it created a way for Aaron Rodgers to avoid having to play for the Packers again while still collecting his $11.5MM in signing bonus allocation for 2021 and the $6.8MM roster bonus that was earned in March (but that hasn’t been paid out yet). But Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, citing a source with knowledge of the situation, said Rodgers is unlikely to go that route.

That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. If Rodgers were to opt out, he would have to make that decision by July 2 — just five days from now — and he would not be able to reverse course. He would be committed to sitting out the 2021 season, and the source says the three-time MVP is not ready to make that decision so soon.

That doesn’t mean that Rodgers will actually play this year. The possibility of a pseudo-retirement has been on the table since this saga began, and it remains an option. Rodgers might not be ready to take himself off the field by July 2, but if he does not get what he wants — either a trade or a new contract that commits the Packers to him until he is actually ready to call it a career — by the time training camp rolls around, he could simply announce his retirement.

He might say that 16 years in the NFL have taken a toll on his mind and body, and that he is ready to hang up the cleats. Such a move could eliminate any fines or forfeitures that the Packers would otherwise be entitled to, and Rodgers could simply unretire in 2022 and say that the year off left him feeling fresh and ready to resume his playing career.

So the COVID opt-out is apparently not a real option for Rodgers. Meaning that we will have to wait until the end of July, at the earliest, before we start to get some clarity.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Jets, Marcus Maye Far Apart In Extension Talks?

June 27th, 2021 at 8:51am CST by Rory Parks

Jets safety Marcus Maye wants a new contract, and as a franchise-tagged player, he has until July 15 to agree to a long-term deal. Otherwise, he will play out the 2021 campaign on his $10.6MM franchise tender and will be eligible for free agency again in 2022.

Rich Cimini of ESPN.com wrote last week that, although Maye attended the Jets’ mandatory minicamp after skipping voluntary OTAs, he blew off his media obligations. In Cimini’s view, that suggests that contract negotiations are not going the way Maye would like, and that the 28-year-old DB did not want to discuss the matter publicly.

This week, Cimini — who believes the negotiations will go down to the wire — offers his take on where the two sides might stand. He thinks that the Jets view John Johnson‘s recent three-year, $33.75MM ($11.25MM AAV) deal with the Browns as a fair comp for Maye. Although Johnson is about three years younger than Maye, both players were drafted in 2017, and they have similar career statistics to this point. That similarity extends to the advanced metrics: Pro Football Focus rated Johnson as its third-best safety in 2020, while Maye received the fifth-highest grade. Neither player has made a Pro Bowl.

But Cimini believes Maye is eyeing a contract with an AAV of around $14MM, a threshold that six other safeties in the league have met or exceeded. New York GM Joe Douglas has generally stuck to his price during his time as the Jets’ front office head, so it’s no sure thing that Maye and the club will be able to find common ground.

Douglas used two 2021 draft picks on safeties: Auburn’s Jamien Sherwood in Round 5 and Florida State’s Hamsah Nasirildeen in Round 6. The Jets are also returning 2020 third-rounder Ashtyn Davis and are transitioning free agent acquisition Lamarcus Joyner back to safety.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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David DeCastro Months Away From Decision On Continuing Career

June 26th, 2021 at 5:09pm CST by Sam Robinson

While David DeCastro is now one of the top free agents available, the All-Pro guard has a major issue to navigate before he considers signing with another team. He will undergo a third ankle surgery soon.

Although the Steelers released the nine-year veteran with a non-football injury designation, DeCastro confirmed this issue was indeed a problem during the 2020 season. He still made the Pro Bowl — in a year without alternates expanding the invite list, no less — but it certainly sounds like the former first-round pick’s career is in jeopardy.

“I’ve thought about it all offseason,” DeCastro said of retirement, via Jim Colony of 93.7 The Fan. “I knew something was wrong. I wanted to give it that 18-month window (which) is usually when you can tell with surgery, so I gave it time to rest then started working out, running and moving around. But I knew something wasn’t right.”

No Steelers injury report mentioned DeCastro’s ankle problem last season, according to The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly (on Twitter). DeCastro appeared on Pittsburgh’s injury report with knee, hand and abdomen issues. DeCastro missed three games in 2020, with the knee and abdomen problems shelving him.

“I had surgery on this ankle last year and it didn’t heal right,” DeCastro said. “Last year, it bothered me. Not only is it painful, but it’s hard to play on when you feel like you’re playing half-legged.”

This could open up the Steelers to an NFL inquiry regarding their injury reporting, and DeCastro will need additional time before determining if his career can continue. The 31-year-old lineman said it will be at least two months before he will know if playing this season is realistic, per Colony. A situation in which DeCastro takes the 2021 season off and returns in 2022 could arise, or a team could make a rare impactful in-season free agency addition. But for now, it appears unlikely DeCastro will be connected to any teams as a free agent.

DeCastro entered the offseason as the last link to Pittsburgh’s “Killer B’s” offensive lines. The Steelers lost a combined 17 Pro Bowls on their O-line this offseason, with Maurkice Pouncey (nine) retiring and Alejandro Villanueva (two) signing with the Ravens. Trai Turner is on board to replace DeCastro, but he is coming off a poor season with the Chargers. The Steelers will enter training camp with significant questions regarding Ben Roethlisberger‘s blockers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NFC Notes: Goodwin, Hunter, Murphy, Saints

June 26th, 2021 at 4:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

Marquise Goodwin‘s bid to make a second U.S. Olympic team failed Friday. The Bears wide receiver was unable to qualify for Sunday’s finals in the long jump, placing 19th out of 24 jumpers in the prelims at the U.S. Olympic trials. An Olympian in 2012, Goodwin has now fallen short of returning to the U.S. team in back-to-back trials. He placed seventh at the 2016 Rio-qualifying event. The 30-year-old’s best jump a 24-foot, 10-inch leap, was nearly three feet shy of his career-best mark — set at the 2012 trials. Goodwin falling short should not exactly surprise, given his focus on an NFL career in the years since the London Games. Although the veteran wideout met the Olympic standard at a March meet, he has been far from an active jumper during his NFL career. He can now transition to full-time football prep. Goodwin, who signed with the Bears in April, will now be on track to join his team on time for training camp.

Here is the latest from the NFC:

  • Danielle Hunter‘s reworked contract ended up creating nearly $4MM in cap space for the Vikings. The Pro Bowl defensive end’s adjusted deal dropped his 2021 cap number from $17.25MM to $13.37MM, per Sports Talk 790’s Aaron Wilson (Twitter link). This pact added $9.45MM in total guarantees to Hunter’s contract, Wilson tweets. In 2022, Hunter’s base salary will drop to $1.4MM, per Wilson (on Twitter), with the $18MM roster bonus comprising most of his $26.1MM cap figure. The Vikings also included a $1MM sack-based incentive for their top pass rusher.
  • The Cardinals lost All-Decade cornerback Patrick Peterson, a 10-year starter, in free agency. Fellow 2020 Arizona boundary starter Dre Kirkpatrick is gone as well. However, the Cards want to keep top holdover Byron Murphy primarily in the slot, Kyle Odegard of AZCardinals.com notes. GM Steve Keim called Murphy one of the league’s top inside defenders earlier this year, and the former second-round pick fared much better in 2020 than he did as a rookie in ’19. Murphy’s snap rate, however, dropped from 98% in 2019 to 72% last season. The Cards also signed Darqueze Dennard this offseason; Dennard mostly played in the slot with the Bengals. It will be interesting to see how DC Vance Joseph deploys Murphy, whom he called his top corner, in the Washington product’s third season.
  • The Saints‘ starting lineup received some shakeups this offseason, most notably at quarterback. But Taysom Hill and/or Jameis Winston are still set to play behind one of the NFL’s top offensive lines. However, the Saints may be considering a change up front. Upon selecting Cesar Ruiz in last year’s first round, the Saints originally planned to play him at center and move incumbent Erik McCoy to right guard, per Larry Holder of The Athletic. But McCoy’s play at center through two seasons prompted New Orleans to leave him there. While a switch may still be a consideration, Holder expects the two blockers to stay put for now (subscription required). McCoy has been a quality center, but Pro Football Focus ranked Ruiz 64th among guards last season.
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Lions GM: Jared Goff Not Bridge QB

June 26th, 2021 at 3:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

While the Panthers and Broncos received more attention for passing on Justin Fields and Mac Jones with top-10 picks, the Lions also bypassed the chance to pair a first-round quarterback with a new regime. These QBs did not appear to be on Detroit’s radar.

The Lions took Penei Sewell at No. 7 and are expected to slot him their first-string right tackle, where he will protect Jared Goff. The Lions required two first-round picks and a 2021 third from the Rams to take on Goff’s contract, but their top decision-maker has concerned himself with other positions on the team’s roster. Goff has the potential to start for many years in Detroit, per GM Brad Holmes.

“I never viewed him as a bridge option,” Holmes said, via Mike O’Hara of DetroitLions.com. “He’s been a winning quarterback. I think his resume speaks for itself.”

Goff is still just 26, has two Pro Bowls on his resume and started in Super Bowl LIII. However, the former No. 1 overall pick finished 22nd and 23rd in Total QBR in 2019 and ’20, respectively, and his play down the stretch last season prompted Sean McVay to favor former Alliance of American Football QB John Wolford and then greenlight a splashy trade for Matthew Stafford.

The Lions also lack the proven weapons Goff enjoyed as a Ram, having signed Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. The latter missed all of last season due to injury, and the Lions did not draft a receiver in the first three rounds. Goff will also transition from McVay to Lions OC Anthony Lynn, who has not called plays in a few years. Detroit should have an upper-echelon offensive line set to block for its new passer, however, which could help him bounce back.

Holmes and Dan Campbell have started a rebuild, and the team holds two first-round picks in 2022 and ’23. Despite Holmes having played a key role in the Rams acquiring Goff via 2016 trade-up, when Holmes worked as the team’s college scouting director, Goff struggling in 2021 will likely put the Lions on the radar for the top QBs in the 2022 draft. But Goff steering this ship for two seasons should also be considered an option; moving his contract will not create any notable cap savings until 2023. Goff is signed through 2024, carrying $30MM-plus cap numbers in each of those years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Former MLB Player Dylan Cozens Retiring From Baseball, Pursuing NFL Job

June 26th, 2021 at 12:55pm CST by Ben Levine

A former MLB player is leaving baseball to pursue his NFL dream. Former Phillies outfielder Dylan Cozens recently announced on Twitter that he’s stepping away from the sport to make a run at professional football.

“I’ve decided it’s time to chase my dream of playing in the [NFL],” Cozens wrote. “I want to thank the [Phillies, Rays, and Brewers] organizations for giving me the opportunity to play professional baseball but more importantly the people, experiences, and memories I’ll keep forever.”

Cozens was a second-round pick back in 2012, and he earned his MLB debut in 2018. He saw time in 27 games through two seasons with the Phillies, batting only .154 with a homer and two RBIs. The 27-year-old signed a minor-league deal with the Brewers late last year, and he saw time in 31 games this season for their AAA affiliate in Nashville.

His connection to football isn’t completely random. Cozens’ father was a four-year player at the University of Pittsburgh, and he was drafted by the Broncos in the 17th round of the 1976 draft. The younger Cozens was a defensive end in high school, and he committed to play football at Arizona before signing with the Phillies.

From Tim Tebow to Jordan Matthews, there have been plenty of athletes looking to reinvent their careers via the NFL this offseason. Obviously, the difference with Cozens is that he hasn’t played organized football since high school. For what it’s worth, he is still only 27, and his body naturally hasn’t taken the same kind of physical beating as a 27-year-old NFL player. He’s also listed at six-foot-six and 245 pounds, so while he may have to put on some weight to compete as a defensive lineman, he certainly possesses the height.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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