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Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st, and it’s unclear whether its rules for draft pick compensation will remain in place for the 2021-22 offseason, whenever teams eventually sign free agents.  It’s at least possible that the current rules will be used once more.  We know that the qualifying offer is set at $18.4MM this winter, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO.  If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose – if the old rules are used.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres

If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins

These 13 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.  Of this group, the Mariners and Tigers seem to be the most likely to sign a qualified free agent, but others like the Twins and Marlins are possible.

All Other Teams: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees

These 15 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground.  The Mets are of particular note: due to their failure to sign Kumar Rocker, they pick at both #11 and #14 in 2022, making that #14 pick subject to forfeiture.

What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

Coaching Notes: Goodwin, Schumaker, Guardians, Brewers

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The Red Sox are parting ways with first base coach Tom Goodwin, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Molly Burkhardt of MLB.com). Goodwin had been in that role for the past four seasons, joining Alex Cora’s staff before the latter’s first year as Boston’s manager. After a fourteen-year major league playing career, Goodwin moved into coaching and minor league managing in the Red Sox’s system. Between two separate stints with the Sox, he spent six seasons as Mets’ first base coach. Goodwin’s departure might be the only change on Cora’s staff, as Bloom told reporters the Red Sox are hoping to bring back the rest of the group in 2022.

The latest on a few other coaching situations around the league:

  • The Cardinals have been in contact with Padres associate manager Skip Schumaker about potentially joining the  organization in some capacity, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Almost immediately after the Cards dismissed Mike Shildt as manager, speculation arose about Schumaker — a former Cardinals utilityman — as a potential successor. St. Louis opted to promote bench coach Oliver Marmol instead, although it’s still possible Schumaker could assume some other position on the Cardinals staff. The 41-year-old remains employed by San Diego, but Padres’ coaches were given permission to explore opportunities elsewhere after the Friars dismissed manager Jayce Tingler.
  • The Guardians are on the hunt for a new hitting coach after parting ways with Ty Van Burkleo a few weeks ago. Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports that his replacement is expected to come from outside the organization. Searching for a hitting instructor is unfamiliar territory for the Guardians’ front office and manager Terry Francona. Van Burkleo had served in that role for the entirety of Francona’s tenure as Cleveland’s manager, joining the staff leading into the 2013 season.
  • Brewers coaching staff advisor Ed Sedar is retiring, the club announced this morning. Sedar was a longtime member of the staff, working as a base coach for the Brew Crew from 2007-20. He transitioned into an advisory role last winter, with former big league outfielder Quintin Berry stepping into the vacant third base coaching role. Sedar spent the better part of three decades in the Milwaukee organization, first joining the club as a minor league coach in 1992.

Rockies To Promote Darryl Scott To Pitching Coach

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The Rockies are promoting bullpen coach Darryl Scott to pitching coach, reports Nick Groke of the Athletic. He’ll take the place of Steve Foster, who is stepping down to spend more time with his family. Groke adds that some in the organization hope Foster could still assume the director of pitching operations role that became available when Mark Wiley retired over the weekend.

Scott has spent the past two seasons leading the Colorado bullpen. He’d spent more than a decade prior in the organization in various capacities, serving as a minor league coach and as the club’s minor league pitching coordinator. The 53-year-old also briefly appeared in the majors as a player, pitching for the 1993 Angels.

Foster had been Colorado’s pitching coach for the past seven seasons, taking over the role during the 2014-15 offseason. Also a former big league hurler — he pitched for the Reds from 1991-93 — the 57-year-old Foster has been the pitching coach for Bud Black’s entire managerial tenure in Colorado so far.

Evaluating Rockies’ pitchers is challenging, given the high level of difficulty succeeding at Coors Field. The staff’s 4.91 ERA over Foster’s tenure is second-highest leaguewide, but park-adjusted metrics have pegged the pitching staff as closer to middle of the pack over the past few years. Players like Germán Márquez, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland have all flashed impact potential at times, but only Márquez has settled in as a consistent top-of-the-rotation arm.

Regardless of whether Foster remains in the organization, it now seems Colorado will need to fill at least one vacancy on the coaching staff. Presumably, Black and general manager Bill Schmidt will now embark on a search for Scott’s replacement in the bullpen.

Latest On Collective Bargaining Negotiations

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The current collective bargaining agreement is set to expire on December 1, and the general expectation is that this round of talks could be especially contentious. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press casts further doubt on the likelihood of a new deal being reached by the end of November, writing that neither MLB nor the MLB Players Association believes the other side has “made proposals that will lead toward an agreement” by December 1.

We’ve gotten glimpses of some ideas being kicked around in the early stages of bargaining over the past few months. In mid-August, Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the league proposed a lowering of the first luxury tax threshold from this year’s $210MM mark to $180MM. That came with a $100MM salary floor ostensibly designed to limit tanking, although the lowered luxury tax thresholds seemed likely to be a non-starter for the MLBPA. Joel Sherman of the New York Post later added additional context on that proposal, writing that the league offered to eliminate service time considerations in favor of an age-based system that would see players hit free agency once they turned 29 1/2.

With a seemingly large gap to bridge, there’s been increasing speculation about how the potential CBA expiration could impact the offseason. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes covered in August, teams were permitted to make moves during the last work stoppage (the 1994-95 players’ strike). Blum writes that MLB may try institute a transactions freeze this winter if the CBA expires without a new agreement. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last month that speculation about a transactions freeze could increase the urgency for some players and teams to hammer out contract extensions before December 1. Since then, each of Michael A. Taylor (Royals), Antonio Senzatela (Rockies) and C.J. Cron (Rockies) signed multi-year deals, although Jon Gray rejected an extension offer from Colorado.

Further complicating matters is the ongoing dispute about last year’s pandemic-shortened season. The MLBPA filed a grievance against the league a few months ago, alleging that MLB didn’t make appropriate efforts to play as many games as possible during last year’s 60-game schedule. (Player pay was prorated in 2020, so fewer games meant lower salaries). Blum now reports that the hearing on that grievance began during the final week of September. A timetable for its resolution remains unclear.

Giants’ GM Scott Harris Not Expected To Take Position With Mets

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The Mets continue to search for a new baseball operations leader, but it doesn’t seem they’ve yet zeroed in on a likely hire. Michael Mayer of Metsmerized reported this morning that New York had recently spoken with Giants’ general manager Scott Harris. Andy Martino of SNY confirms the Mets were in contact with Harris but now rules him out as a potential candidate.

Evidently, that’s due to Harris not wanting to leave San Francisco. Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (Twitter link) reports that the Bay Area native took himself out of consideration for the Mets’ job due to his preference to remain with the Giants. Harris has spent the past two seasons working as San Francisco’s GM, where he’s been second-in-command underneath president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. The Mets’ top baseball ops job would’ve been a step up in responsibility for the 34-year-old Harris, but it seems he’s content with his current role.

Mayer also reports that Dodgers’ assistant general manager Brandon Gomes is seemingly out of consideration for the Mets. He suggests Gomes is likely to receive a promotion in the Los Angeles front office instead, jibing with similar reports by Martino over the past couple weeks. A former big league reliever, the 37-year-old Gomes has spent the past five seasons with the Dodgers, the last three in an assistant GM capacity.

The Mets’ search initially involved high-profile targets Theo Epstein, Billy Beane and David Stearns. For various reasons, none of that trio is still a possibility for New York, and Martino adds that the team has pivoted to targeting younger, up-and-coming executives in the Harris and Gomes mold. The SNY scribe adds that there are “one or two” candidates for the position already in the organization, although he rules out AGM Bryn Alderson — the son of team president Sandy Alderson, who is partly responsible for deciding on the next hire.

In one final wrinkle, Martino suggests the new hire might be brought in with the title of general manager as opposed to president of baseball operations. There’s a bit of semantics at play there, since the incoming hire would be in charge of daily baseball operations either way. Still, the potential change in title could be dependent upon whom the Mets eventually tab.

Teams are typically reluctant to allow in-house executives to interview for lateral positions elsewhere. New York was initially reported to be seeking a president of baseball ops, a higher title would likely allow more leeway in pursuit of rival GM’s like Harris. Were the Mets to hire another club’s assistant general manager, though, they’d only need to offer that person a GM title to offer a step up.

That’s a small matter, since the Mets are in position to create either role depending upon the previous title of whomever they hire. Still, the Mets’ GM/president of baseball ops twist subtly highlights how leaguewide title inflation plays into the hiring of front office personnel each winter.

Four Orioles Players Elect Free Agency

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OCTOBER 25: Baltimore announced that each of Valaika, Eshelman and Wade has elected free agency as expected. That’s also true of catcher Austin Wynns, who was designated for assignment himself last week.

OCTOBER 23: The Orioles have outrighted infielder Pat Valaika and right-handers Thomas Eshelman and Konner Wade to Triple-A, according to MLB.com’s official transactions page.  All three players have the option of rejecting the outright assignment and opting for free agency.

Valaika has the most big league experience of the trio, with 373 games under his belt with the Rockies and Orioles, including 142 appearances in a Baltimore uniform over the last two seasons.  Valaika hit .277/.315/.475 over 150 PA in 2020 but his numbers cratered to a .540 OPS in 281 plate appearances this year, and he no longer seems to be in the club’s plans.  Valaika was projected to earn $1.3MM in his second trip through the arbitration process this winter and already seemed like a non-tender candidate.

Eshelman could be a candidate to return for another season with the O’s, as he re-signed with the team on a new minor league deal after opting for free agency last offseason in the wake of an outright assignment.  Eshelman has spent parts of the last three seasons with Baltimore, with a 5.77 ERA to show for his 98 1/3 career innings.  While he has some extra utility as a swingman, Eshelman has only an 11.3% strikeout rate over his brief MLB career.

Wade made his MLB debut this season, posting an 11.68 ERA in 12 1/3 innings over seven appearances for Baltimore.  A seventh-round pick for the Rockies in the 2013 draft, Wade pitched in the Mexican League and the independent leagues amidst stints in the Colorado and Boston farm systems before landing with the Orioles on a minor league deal this past winter.  A groundball specialist earlier in this career, Wade has a 3.76 ERA over 735 innings in the minors, starting 109 of 175 career outings.

Cardinals Designate Justin Miller For Assignment

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The Cardinals are designating reliever Justin Miller for assignment, relays Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). The move was necessary to create space on the 40-man roster for Jordan Hicks, who is being reinstated from the 60-day injured list in a procedural move. Players must be activated off the 60-day IL before the start of the offseason.

St. Louis added Miller off waivers from the Nationals in early July. The 34-year-old tossed 16 innings of 4.50 ERA ball with the Cards down the stretch. Miller threw strikes at a solid rate but only struck out 13.2% of opposing hitters with a meager 9.3% swinging strike rate. A fly-ball pitcher, Miller allowed five homers in 19 innings split between Washington and St. Louis, although only two of those came in a Cardinal uniform.

Miller didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2020, but he appeared at the highest level in five of the six seasons from 2014-19. The right-hander posted big strikeout numbers with the 2015 Rockies and 2018 Nats, but he hasn’t been able to lock down a long-term bullpen role over the past few seasons due to inconsistent performance and injuries.

The Cardinals will place Miller on outright or release waivers in the coming days. Should he pass through unclaimed, he’d have the right to elect minor league free agency as a player who has previously been outrighted in his career.

Lance McCullers Jr. Won’t Pitch In World Series

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OCTOBER 25: McCullers confirmed he won’t be able to pitch in the World Series while speaking with reporters this afternoon (video via Mark Berman of Fox 26). The righty indicated that the strain he suffered typically requires a six-to-eight week rest period, and there’s obviously not that level of leeway remaining at this point of the season.

OCTOBER 24: Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t pitched since Game 4 of the ALDS, and it looks like his forearm injury will end his season.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that McCullers won’t be available for the World Series, so Houston will now have to try and win its second consecutive postseason matchup without one of its best hurlers.

Astros GM James Click didn’t rule McCullers out when speaking to reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) earlier today, noting that roster decisions didn’t need to made until Tuesday morning, “and we’re going to take every minute we can just to see how he’s responding.  We’re not taking anything off the table….It’s obviously something that I know Lance wants to be out there if he can, so we will talk to the doctors and him and the trainers and figure it out from there.”

However, as open-minded as Click was about McCullers’ chances, Heyman’s report essentially formalizes what has seemed increasingly evident over the last few days.  McCullers has yet to so much as throw since suffering his injury, a strain of his flexor pronator muscle.  While the muscle injury itself doesn’t present any serious long-term issue, McCullers has already undergone Tommy John surgery (costing him the entire 2019 season), and obviously the Astros aren’t going to take any unnecessary risks with his health.

That TJ rehab cost McCullers a chance to participate in the 2019 World Series, and it’s quite possible that with a healthy McCullers in the fold, Houston would’ve been able to bring home another championship.  The righty has quietly been a very solid arm during the Astros’ postseason runs, with a 2.83 ERA over 57 1/3 innings as a starter and a reliever in the playoffs.  This year alone, McCullers allowed just one earned run in 10 2/3 frames against the White Sox in the ALDS, starting Games 1 and 4.

Framber Valdez was announced as Houston’s starter for Tuesday’s Game 1 against the Braves.  As we saw in the ALCS against the Red Sox, the Astros will take a flexible approach to their pitching plans, so no other starters have been officially slated for the other World Series games.  On paper, it would seem like the Astros would line up Luis Garcia in Game 2, Jose Urquidy in Game 3, and then Zack Greinke for perhaps only a few innings to begin Game 4, with Cristian Javier and Jake Odorizzi on hand to provide innings as long men out of the bullpen.

Cardinals Name Oliver Marmol Manager

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Oct. 25: The Cardinals have formally introduced Marmol as the 51st manager in franchise history. He signed a three-year contract that’ll run through the 2024 season, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Oct. 24: The Cardinals are set to announce bench coach Oliver Marmol as the team’s next manager, according to Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).  The Cards have called a press conference for Monday morning to officially introduce Marmol.

The hiring concludes an unusual start to the St. Louis offseason, as there wasn’t any indication that previous manager Mike Shildt’s job was in danger before the Cardinals surprisingly fired Shildt 10 days ago.  As president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters, “philosophical differences” emerged with Shildt, and while some reports have surfaced about what some of those differences may have been, it appears the issue was indeed with Shildt alone.  It seems as though the Cards will be bringing back most of their coaching staff for 2022, though a new bench coach will now be needed with Marmol being elevated to the top job.

Oliver Marmol

Marmol was seen as a candidate essentially from the moment the news broke of Shildt’s firing, and at age 35, Marmol is now the youngest current manager in the big leagues.  He is also the first person of color to work as the Cardinals manager in over 80 years, since Mike Gonzalez briefly managed the team on an interim basis in both 1938 and 1940 (a total of 23 games).

Despite his young age, Marmol already has plenty of experience on the bench.  Originally a sixth-round pick for the Cards in the 2007 draft, Marmol played four seasons in the minors before transitioning to coaching and managing in the St. Louis farm system.  He has spent the last five seasons on the Cardinals’ MLB coaching staff, working two years as first base coach before working as Shildt’s bench coach for the last three seasons.

Marmol is now the third manager Mozeliak has hired during his tenure as the team’s GM and president of baseball operations, and like predecessors Shildt and Mike Matheny, Marmol also has longstanding ties to the St. Louis organization.  In a sense, Marmol is something of a blend of the two previous skippers — he has Matheny’s relative youth and more recent playing experience, but also a resume of managerial experience in the minors and coaching experience in the majors, a la Shildt.  Marmol has been mentioned as a potential manager of the future for the Cardinals and other teams, so the Cards’ hiring decision may have been partially inspired by a desire to keep Marmol in the fold.

The newly-minted skipper will face plenty of expectations in the top job, as the Cardinals have reached the postseason in three straight seasons but suffered two early exits (losing to the Dodgers in this year’s wild card game and to the Padres in the 2020 wild card series) and a four-game sweep to the Nationals in the 2019 NLCS.  St. Louis fans are always expecting to win, and since 2022 will be Yadier Molina’s farewell season, there is perhaps even extra pressure for extended playoff success next year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Padres Interview Luis Rojas

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The Padres have interviewed former Mets manager Luis Rojas as they look to replace recently fired skipper Jayce Tingler, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Rojas spent the past two seasons as the Mets’ manager but had a 2022 club option declined at season’s end and is now free to explore other opportunities.

It was an odd tenure with the Mets for the 40-year-old Rojas, who was set to enter the 2020 season as the team’s quality control coach before abruptly being elevated to manager after New York fired Carlos Beltran. The Beltran firing, which came on the heels of the league investigation into the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal, came just months after Beltran had been hired. He never managed a game with the Mets.

Prior to his unexpected run as the Mets’ skipper, Rojas had coached and managed at three levels in the Mets’ minor league system, in addition to managing in the Dominican Winter League. He was named South Atlantic League Manager of the Year for the Mets in 2014. Rojas comes from a family with a rich baseball history, as Rojas is the son of three-time National League All-Star and 1994 National League Manager of the Year Felipe Alou. He’s also the half-brother of six-time All-Star and 1997 World Series champion Moises Alou.

Under president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, the Padres have hired a pair of youthful, rookie skippers in the aforementioned Tingler and his predecessor, Andy Green. Rojas would make for a third straight hire of a manager aged 40 or younger, though he’s now spent two seasons managing a big league team in a major market — in addition to his prior work in the DWL and in the Mets’ system.

Rojas joins former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt and former Tigers/Angels manager Brad Ausmus on the early list of reported candidates for the Padres’ managerial vacancy.

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