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Angels Part Ways With Hitting Coaches Jeremy Reed, John Mallee, Third Base Coach Mike Gallego

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8:03pm: In addition to Reed and Mallee, Mike Gallego will not return to the Angels as third base coach next season, reports Sarah Valenzuela of the LA Times (Twitter link). At this time, it is unclear whether or not Gallego will be reassigned within the organization or let go completely.

6:57pm: Assistant hitting coach John Mallee is also being let go, the team informed reporters (including Sam Blum of the Athletic). Mallee got the job over the 2019-20 offseason, not long after a stint as the lead hitting coach in Philadelphia.

4:59pm: The Angels are parting ways with hitting coach Jeremy Reed, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The club has yet to announce the news, but it seems they’ll soon search for a new hitting coach to work under manager Phil Nevin.

Reed, 41, has spent the past four seasons in the role. His hiring came within a few weeks of the tabbing of Brad Ausmus as manager, but the Halos have had a fair bit of managerial turnover in the few seasons since then. Ausmus lasted just one year on the job before Joe Maddon was hired going into the 2020 season. Maddon held the position for two-plus seasons but was dismissed in June, with Nevin tabbed as his replacement on an interim basis. Nevin signed a one-year deal and had the interim tag removed after the 2022 campaign wrapped up.

The Halos were a below-average offensive team over the past four seasons. Since the start of 2019, they rank 22nd in runs scored. They’re 21st in on-base percentage and 18th in slugging. This past season was a particular struggle, as the Halos mustered only a .297 OBP (one of five teams to reach base at a sub-.300 clip). The ranked 15th with a .390 slugging mark, but no MLB team struck out more often than the Angels’ 25.7% rate. Of the 11 Anaheim hitters to top 200 plate appearances, just four (Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward and Luis Rengifo) posted a wRC+ better than the 100 league average.

As with any coach, Reed certainly can’t shoulder all the blame for the Halos’ subpar performance. Los Angeles has run out top-heavy rosters for the past few seasons, and this year’s group was no exception. The Angels lost Anthony Rendon and David Fletcher for extended stretches, leaving them to rely more than anticipated on players like Andrew Velazquez and Matt Duffy. The Halos also saw sharp regressions from Jared Walsh and Max Stassi, both of whom had seemed to break out earlier in Reed’s tenure as hitting coach.

That said, the Halos have also seen some highly-touted young players struggle at the big league level. Left fielder Jo Adell is the most prominent example, as the former top prospect has managed just a .215/.259/.356 line through his first 161 MLB games. Brandon Marsh had serviceable numbers overall but significant strikeout concerns that presumably contributed to the Halos’ willingness to deal him for catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe at this past trade deadline. Adell and O’Hoppe could both play key roles on next year’s team as the Angels try to snap an eight-year playoff drought.

Jose Ramirez To Undergo Hand Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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Guardians star José Ramírez will undergo surgery on his right hand early next month, agent Rafa Nieves tells Enrique Rojas of ESPN (Twitter link). The procedure is not expected to impact his readiness for next Spring Training. Tenchy Rodriguez was first to report (on Twitter) that Ramírez would have to undergo surgery.

Ramírez first suffered the injury midseason, Rojas adds, but he played through the issue as the Guardians ran down and eventually cruised to an AL Central title. He remained in the lineup on a more or less everyday basis, appearing in 157 regular season games and starting all seven of the club’s postseason contests at third base. Ramírez did miss two games in late June due to a right thumb injury but avoided the injured list all season.

Whether directly related to the thumb issue or not, the four-time All-Star slowed down after an otherworldly first few months. Ramírez carried a .292/.389/.641 line through 244 plate appearances on June 13. By measure of wRC+, he was the fifth-best qualified hitter in the game to that point. Ramírez first suffered the thumb injury at some point during a series against the Rockies that ranged from June 14-16, however (link via Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com). From that point forward, he posted a .273/.336/.446 line in 441 trips to the plate. Even the seemingly diminished version of Ramírez was an above-average player, but his second half was well below the MVP-caliber form he’s shown at his best.

After Cleveland’s elimination at the hands of the Yankees yesterday, Ramírez has decided to go under the knife. The expectation is that the issue will be corrected in plenty of time so as not to interrupt his preparation for next season. Assuming all goes according to plan, the 30-year-old should head into 2023 as one of the top handful of players in the sport.

Ramírez signed a team-friendly seven-year contract extension with Cleveland in Spring Training, ensuring he remains with the only organization he’s ever known. He’s due $119MM over the next six seasons, a bargain for the kind of production on both sides of the ball he provides at his peak. He’ll remain the integral piece of a young Cleveland lineup that was roughly average overall this season. The Guardians got solid contributions from a number of young players (i.e. Steven Kwan, Óscar González and Andrés Giménez) and will look to build off this year’s surprising division title over the coming seasons.

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Center Field

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MLBTR continues to go around the diamond to check in on the upcoming free agent market. In recent weeks, we’ve looked into the catchers and gone around the infield/corner outfield. Today, we’ll turn our attention to a center field class that falls off sharply after its top duo.

Tier Of His Own

What more can be said about Judge’s 2022 campaign? It was an all-time offensive performance. Judge hit 62 home runs, cementing himself in the history books and connecting on 16 more longballs than anyone else in the game this season. He slugged .686, the highest mark for a qualified hitter in a full schedule since 2004. Judge also led all qualified hitters this season in on-base percentage (.425) and finished fifth in batting average (.311). He’s the sport’s preeminent slugger, owner of an obscene 60.9% hard hit rate. Judge is also tremendously patient and has gotten some early-career strikeout concerns very much in check.

As far as 2023 goes, few players project to be more impactful. He’ll be the top overall player on the free agent market, and he’s in position to land one of the largest deals in major league history. The primary factor working against Judge is that he’s a bit on the older side for a first-time free agent, heading into his age-31 campaign. That’ll likely keep him from landing a decade-long commitment, but he has a chance to set the average annual value record for a position player over an eight or nine-year term.

There’s no question about Judge’s offensive potential, although he’s not likely to be a long-term fit in center fit. A natural right fielder, he played more center field for the Yankees this season due to the roster composition. He held his own, with public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average all pegging him as a hair better than par. Judge’s 6’7″, 280-plus pound build isn’t a traditional fit for center field, but he’s a good athlete and consistently posts plus defensive marks in right field. Teams are pursuing Judge primarily for what he can do in the batter’s box, but he’s a defensive asset as well and demonstrated this year he’s capable of manning center field if needed, at least early in the deal. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer, although it’s unlikely to have an impact on his market.

Clear #2

Nimmo took more than five years to reach the majors after going in the first round of the 2011 draft. While it took him some time to get to the big leagues, he almost immediately hit the ground running and has been a productive player throughout his Mets tenure. Nimmo has posted well above-average offensive rate stats in every year since 2017, with an on-base percentage of .367 or better in each season of his career. While he’s never topped 17 homers, he’s settled in as an excellent top-of-the-lineup table setter. Since the start of 2020, only five qualified hitters (Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Judge and Paul Goldschmidt) have been better than Nimmo at reaching base.

The main knock on Nimmo have never been about his productivity on a rate basis, but rather his lack of volume. He’s dealt with a number of injuries throughout his professional career, and he entered the 2022 campaign with just one 400+ plate appearance season on his resume. He stayed healthy through all of 2022, though, tallying a personal-high 151 games played and 673 trips to the plate. Teams may still have some lingering trepidation about investing in a player who spent time on the injured list in every full season of his career before this one, but he hits the market having proven himself capable of performing at a high level over 162 games.

Like Judge, Nimmo has spent extended stretches of his career in the corner outfield. He’s played almost exclusively up the middle the past two years, however, and he’s proven himself an adept defender. Public metrics unanimously had him as an above-average center fielder in 2021. Those estimators were more divided in 2022, with DRS pegging him a few runs below average while Statcast had him as six runs above par. At the very least, he looks like an adequate defensive center fielder, and some teams might see him as a plus. Nimmo is somewhat quietly one of the better outfielders in the sport, and he could be rewarded for his excellent platform season with a nine-figure deal. He’ll receive and reject a QO.

Players Coming Off Down Years

Duvall hit 38 home runs a season ago, but he managed just 13 round-trippers in 315 trips to the plate this year. Duvall strikes out a fair amount and rarely draws walks, leading to an on-base percentage of .301 or lower in each of the past three years. He’s a low-OBP slugger who plays plus corner outfield defense at his best. The Braves relied upon him for a career-high 382 innings of center field work this year. Public metrics felt he held his own up the middle, but he’ll be 34 next season and his disappointing offensive year was cut short in July when he underwent surgery on his left wrist.

Bradley is a former Gold Glove winner and was one of the game’s top defensive outfielders at his peak. His offensive production has waxed and waned throughout his career, but he was an above-average hitter as recently as 2020. Bradley has unfortunately been among the game’s least effective hitters in each of the last two seasons, though. He followed up a .163/.236/.261 showing last year in Milwaukee with an only slightly improved .203/.255/.311 mark over 370 trips to the plate for the Red Sox and Blue Jays in 2022. Even with his defensive ability, he could be in minor league deal territory this winter.

Herrera posted a serviceable .260/.310/.416 line with the Phillies in 2021, leading the Phils to bring him back as part of a spotty center field mix entering this season. The switch-hitter missed some time early due to an oblique strain and hit only .238/.279/.378 across 197 plate appearances. Philadelphia released him in early August, and he didn’t catch on elsewhere for the stretch run.

Cain hit .179/.231/.234 in 43 games with the Brewers this year. Milwaukee released him in mid-June, shortly after he crossed the ten-year MLB service time threshold. Cain didn’t sign elsewhere and has spoken about how much he’s enjoyed spending additional time with his family. He hasn’t officially called it a career, and the respected veteran would presumably have some minor league opportunities if he wanted to give it another go, but it seems likely his playing days are behind him.

Depth Players

Phillips is a plus defender at all three outfield spots. He owns one of the game’s top throwing arms and is an excellent baserunner. Yet he’s simply not been productive enough as a hitter to merit more than fifth outfield playing time, and he’s coming off a dismal .144/.217/.249 showing in 225 plate appearances split between the Rays and Orioles. Phillips went unclaimed on waivers in August and could be limited to minor league offers with Spring Training invitations.

Davis is a speed and defense oriented player who’s suited up with three teams over the past five years. He draws a fair number of walks but doesn’t provide much else offensively. A career .185/.291/.245 hitter over 171 games, he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the Brewers last month.

Heyward is still under contract for 2023, but the Cubs have already announced he’ll be released at the start of the offseason. Heyward simply never hit at anywhere near the level Chicago had anticipated when signing him to an eight-year, $184MM free agent deal heading into 2016. He’s a respected clubhouse presence and still a capable defender around the outfield grass, but he hits the market coming off a .204/.278/.277 showing in 48 games. It seems likely he’ll be limited to minor league offers, but the Cubs would be on the hook for all but the league minimum if Heyward cracks the majors with another team next year.

Another glove-first depth type, Almora was a regular for a few years with the Cubs early in his career. He tallied 235 plate appearances with the Reds this past season, his heaviest workload since 2019. Almora hit .223/.282/.349 and was released in September.

Once a top prospect in the St. Louis and Miami systems, Sierra has long been of interest for his elite speed and defensive ability. He has zero power, however, yet to connect on a single homer in 278 MLB games. The resulting .228/.273/.272 career slash line has left him in journeyman territory. Sierra took 96 plate appearances with the Angels this year before being outrighted off the roster earlier this month.

Hermosillo has played in the majors in each of the past five seasons, but he’s never gotten more than 31 games in any individual year. He hit .115/.250/.148 over 73 plate appearances with the Cubs this year, losing a large chunk of the season to a quad strain. Chicago outrighted him last month.

Duggar was the primary center fielder for the Giants in 2021, posting respectable numbers despite a strikeout rate pushing 30%. He didn’t get much of a big league look this year, however, as he quickly landed on the injured list and was eventually traded to the Rangers. Duggar also suited up with the Angels briefly and posted a combined .153/.225/.222 line in 80 plate appearances between the three clubs. He was designated for assignment by the Halos in September and elected free agency after clearing waivers.

Brinson was a top prospect and twice at the center of a major trade before exhausting his rookie eligibility. Given a few extended runs by the Marlins, he never overcame dismal strikeout and walk numbers to fully tap into his athleticism and power potential. Brinson was limited to minor league offers last winter. He had a great showing in Triple-A — as he has throughout much of his career — and earned a 16-game look with the Giants late in the year. Brinson hit three homers but struck out in 14 of his 39 MLB plate appearances before being outrighted off the roster.

Marisnick has appeared in parts of nine straight major league seasons. The past three have been in fourth/fifth outfield duty, with his glove getting him on rosters despite significant strikeout issues. Marisnick played in 31 games with the Pirates this year, hitting .234/.272/.390. He was released in August and finished out the year on a minor league contract with the Braves, struggling over 17 Triple-A games.

Allen’s speed has been his primary asset throughout his big league tenure. He’s an excellent baserunner but has drawn mixed reviews for his center field defense and hasn’t hit much in the majors. A big 15-game showing with the Yankees in 2021 earned him 134 plate appearances with the Pirates this year, but he stumbled to a .186/.260/.271 line before being waived in September.

The speedy Hamilton had brief looks with the Marlins and Twins this year, often in a designated pinch-running capacity. A former everyday player and 50-steal threat during his early days in Cincinnati, Hamilton has bounced around the league in recent years.

Players With Contractual Options

The Rays are certain to buy Kiermaier out rather than pay the extra $11MM it’d take to bring him back. That’s only natural after his disappointing 2022 showing, in which he hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before undergoing season-ending hip surgery. Even as he’s gotten into his 30’s, Kiermaier has remained one of the sport’s preeminent defensive center fielders. Yet he’s also spent a fair amount of time on the injured list throughout his career, at least in part due to the highly aggressive play style that makes him such an electrifying defender. Kiermaier may well be the third-best center fielder on the market this year, but there’s obvious risk in signing a player whose game is so reliant on athleticism coming off hip surgery.

  • AJ Pollock (35), $13MM player option, $5MM buyout

Pollock had a tough first season in Chicago after heading over from the Dodgers in a pre-Opening Day trade. The veteran outfielder hit .245/.292/.389 with 14 homers over 527 plate appearances. By eclipsing 500 trips to the dish, he escalated the value of his option from its base $10MM to $13MM. Pollock had a nice September, but his slow start and age make it hard to see him topping the $8MM he’d have to forego to test the market. He’s likely to exercise his option and return to the South Siders.

Previous installments: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstops, Corner outfielders

Astros Add Seth Martinez To ALCS Roster, Drop Jake Meyers

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The Astros swept the Mariners in the ALDS and are about to face off against the Yankees in the ALCS. The roster is largely unchanged, though right-hander Seth Martinez has been swapped in for outfielder Jake Meyers. Here is the full squad…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

The omission of Meyers leaves the Astros with just three players listed as outfielders: Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick and Kyle Tucker. However, infielders Trey Mancini, Aledmys Diaz and Mauricio Dubón are all capable of spending some time on the grass. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle points out that Dubón was used as a defensive replacement in all three games of the ALDS, while Meyers started Game 2 and struck out twice before being replaced and didn’t get into the 18-inning marathon that was Game 3. It seems that Dubón passed Meyers as the backup center fielder, which has allowed the Astros to carry an extra arm in this series.

The Astros have no lefty relievers and could have brought Will Smith onto the roster but have instead opted for Martinez. That’s likely a reflection of the Yankee lineup, where Anthony Rizzo is the only left-hander likely to be in there every day. Matt Carpenter could also get some at-bats, though likely in a pinch-hitting capacity. Then there’s the switch-hitting Oswaldo Cabrera, but the Yanks subtracted two other switch-hitters from their roster by removing Marwin Gonzalez and the injured Aaron Hicks. Given that the lineup is slanted towards righties, Martinez has gotten the nod over Smith. Martinez faced 99 righties this year and held them to a .135/.214/.180 batting line.

Oswald Peraza, Frankie Montas Added To Yankees’ Roster For ALCS

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The Yankees announced their roster for the ALCS, with infielder Oswald Peraza, right-handers Frankie Montas and Greg Weissert as new additions from the ALDS. They will take the place of outfielder Aaron Hicks, who is done for the year, as well as utility player Marwin Gonzalez and left-hander Lucas Luetge. Also of note, infielder DJ LeMahieu and outfielder Andrew Benintendi, both out with injuries, have not been added.

Here is the full roster for the Yankees, as they get set to take on the Astros:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Designated Hitter

The injury sustained by Hicks has led to a domino effect, necessitating some of today’s switches. For the last two games of the ALDS, Hicks started in left field with Oswaldo Cabrera at short, bumping Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the bench. After Hicks was injured yesterday, Kiner-Falefa was eventually installed at short with Cabrera going out to the left field. Without Hicks, it seems possible that the Yanks will use Aaron Judge, Harrison Bader and Cabrera as their regular outfield mix. That subtracts Cabrera from the infield picture, which Peraza will now step into. Gonzalez is capable of playing anywhere, though he hit just .185/.255/.321 this year. It seems the Yanks would prefer the rookie Peraza, who hit .306/.404/.429 in his 18-game debut this year.

Benintendi underwent hamate surgery in early September and has recently been working out, trying to get healthy enough to rejoin the club. However, recent reporting indicated he’s been experiencing continued soreness, leading to an injection in his wrist. With him not able to return, Cabrera could be in line for regular outfield duty. Giancarlo Stanton could theoretically be an option, having played 38 games in the outfield this year, though the Yanks might also opt to keep him as the designated hitter.

Similar to Benintendi, LeMahieu has been out of action for a while and has been trying to get healthy enough to return. His absence has been due to a ligament issue with the second toe of his right foot. It appears that he hasn’t recuperated enough to get a roster spot. With LeMahieu’s lingering issue, Cabrera likely in the outfield and Kiner-Falefa struggling, Peraza has been swapped in for Gonzalez to contend for shortstop playing time.

As for Montas, he was the Yankees’ big deadline acquisition for the pitching staff. However, he struggled badly after coming over from the A’s. He had a 3.18 ERA with Oakland but then a 6.35 ERA after the deal. It’s possible that shoulder issues were hampering him, as he missed a few starts prior to the trade and was eventually placed on the IL by the Yanks due to shoulder inflammation. He hasn’t been fully stretched out and won’t be a candidate for a starting job, though manager Aaron Boone recently said Montas could throw some multi-inning outings.

With the additions of Montas and Weissert and the subtraction of Luetge, the Yankees are left with Wandy Peralta as the only lefty in their bullpen. The Astros are very right-handed, having just two lefties in their lineup, though the two are Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. It seems the Yanks have a bit more faith in some of their right-handers to face the middle of the Houston lineup, with Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga and Miguel Castro perhaps in line to try to quell Alvarez and Tucker.

Christian Vazquez Eyeing More Playing Time

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Astros catcher Christian Vazquez will be a free agent this off-season, and has indicated his biggest priority will be finding a team willing to hand him the starting job.

Vazquez, 32, started 24 of a possible 58 matches after being traded from the Red Sox to Houston for minor leaguers Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez on deadline day. The team usually opts for Martin Maldonado to catch Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers, meaning starts for Vazquez haven’t been as plentiful as in Boston.

“It was hard and it’s still hard,” Vazquez told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “But I’ll be a free agent after the postseason and I can choose where I want to go. Everybody knows that.”

The Puerto Rico native had been with the Red Sox since being drafted in the ninth round in 2008, and had been their starting catcher since 2018. He put together a combined .262/.311/.389 line during his time in Boston, and graded out as an above-average catcher defensively. His bat and ball skills are well measured, but he’s also widely regarded as a strong leader and positive clubhouse presence, too. Vazquez’ offensive numbers dropped significantly after the trade, and he hit just .250/.278/.308 across 108 plate appearances, but given the sudden drop in playing time perhaps it’s forgivable that Vazquez struggled to find consistency initially. Nonetheless, he’ll figure to do well in free agency as one of the better catchers available.

Bat-first catcher Willson Contreras headlines the catching free agents, but Vazquez is arguably the second best option available. With Maldonado under contract in Houston for another year, it seems likely that Vazquez will look for a new team to give him the playing time he seeks. While almost any team could do with a well-rounded catcher like Vazquez, a return to the Red Sox would be something he’d welcome.

“I hope so. I’d love it. It was my [house] for a long time,” Vázquez said. “We’ll see how it goes.”

Reese McGuire impressed down the stretch for the Red Sox, but Kevin Plawecki is a free agent and Connor Wong struggled in his small sample of playing time so the Red Sox do figure to be active in the catching market this off-season. Ultimately though, with the Mets, Twins, Rays, Cardinals, Brewers, Guardians, and White Sox among the contending teams that could be seeking upgrades at the position Vazquez is likely to have plenty of interest.

Orioles Outright Louis Head

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The Orioles have sent reliever Louis Head outright to Triple-A Norfolk, per his transactions page at MLB.com. Head was designated for assignment by the team on Friday.

Head, 32, was claimed off waivers by the Orioles in July after spending the first half of the season in Miami. Originally an 18th round selection by Cleveland back in 2012, Head spent nine years in the minor leagues before the Rays gave him a shot in the big leagues in last year.

At Tampa Bay, Head pitched to a 2.31 ERA across 35 innings. While he was never a big strikeout guy, Head kept the walks and home runs in check to provide strong innings out of the Rays bullpen, although he also benefited from a .216 opponent batting average on balls in play. The Marlins to acquired him in the off-season, but the results went south after the trade. Head’s walk rate jumped significantly to 9.9% while his home run rate more than doubled from his time at the Rays. As a result, he pitched to a 7.23 ERA across 23 2/3 innings before the Marlins exposed him to waivers in July.

Head only pitched five innings in Baltimore, but struggled in his time at Triple-A Norfolk as well, pitching to a 7.04 ERA. While Head has less than three years of service time and is being outrighted for the first time, as a player who has spent parts of seven seasons in the minor leagues, he can elect free agency.

Dodgers’ Friedman/Gomes Discuss Roberts, Kershaw, Bellinger, Justin Turner

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The Dodgers were baseball’s best team in the regular season, winning a franchise-record 111 games. They cleared the next-closest team, the Astros, by five games and finished ten clear of anyone else in the National League.

That didn’t translate to postseason success, however, as Los Angeles dropped three of four to the division-rival Padres in their Divisional Series. As they enter the offseason earlier than hoped, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Brandon Gomes met with reporters this afternoon (links via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times and Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).

The executives predictably expressed their disappointment with the early postseason exit, with Friedman suggesting it was the most painful series loss of his tenure atop baseball operations. Yet he quickly downplayed the need for sweeping organizational changes, pointing to the volatility inherent in a short playoff series. While Friedman credited the Padres for outplaying the Dodgers during the Division Series, he noted the lack of situational hitting which plagued L.A. in the postseason is the sort of thing that tends to ebb and flow throughout a year.

To that point about the team not requiring any kind of drastic overhaul, Friedman confirmed previous reports manager Dave Roberts would be back for an eighth season. “I feel like Dave and his coaching staff did an incredible job during the regular season to lead this team to 111 wins,” Friedman said, noting that the skipper would “100%” return to the role in 2023. “I don’t feel like it’s a switch that was then turned off or the players needed a different voice in those (playoff) games. That’s my personal belief.”

Friedman added he doesn’t expect there to be any changes to Roberts’ coaching staff, implying that everyone will be offered a chance to return. Each offseason, teams run the risk of seeing a coach depart to take on a more impactful role with another club. Bench coach Bob Geren and first base coach Clayton McCullough each got some managerial attention last winter, for instance, and it’s possible their names are floated again in searches this offseason.

Turning to the playing personnel, Friedman and Gomes touched on a few key decisions they’ll need to make early in the offseason. Los Angeles will see franchise icon Clayton Kershaw hit free agency for the second straight winter. Last offseason, the Dodgers surprisingly elected not to make Kershaw a qualifying offer. Friedman later explained the Dodgers didn’t want to pressure the future Hall of Famer into making a decision whether to return within the 10-day window allotted to qualified free agents. Kershaw didn’t make a decision until after the lockout, and he eventually re-signed on a one-year, $17MM guarantee in Spring Training.

Because Kershaw didn’t receive a qualifying offer last winter, he’s eligible for one again. Friedman didn’t explicitly rule out the QO this time around but strongly hinted they’d again opt against it. “Like I said last year, I think for him to take the time and put his head together with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what makes the most sense for their family is what we’re going to give him time to do,” the Dodger president said. Friedman called it his “strong hope” that Kershaw elects to return for a 16th season in L.A.

This year’s qualifying offer has been set at $19.65MM. That’s a perfectly reasonable price to pay for the three-time Cy Young winner, who remains among the best starters in the game on a rate basis. Kershaw pitched to a sterling 2.28 ERA across 126 1/3 innings this past season, striking out an above-average 27.8% of opponents against an elite 4.7% walk rate. He lost roughly a month apiece to hip and back injuries, but he didn’t seem to feel any ill effects of the forearm discomfort that cut his 2021 season short.

Kershaw has stated a few times in recent weeks that he’s presently leaning towards continuing his career. Immediately after the series loss, he told reporters that “as of right now, I’d say I’ll play again.” He added that spending time with his family early in the offseason had the potential to change his mind, however, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kershaw take his free agency process slower than most players do. Last winter’s decision seemed to come down to a return to L.A., joining his hometown Rangers, or retiring. It figures to be a similar story this winter, with both the Dodgers and Rangers sure to have significant interest in signing him. (Other teams would obviously call if Kershaw broadened his geographic range, but that’d be quite surprising).

While the ball is primarily in Kershaw’s court as to whether he returns to Dodger Stadium, the onus falls on the team to decide how to proceed with 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger. Bellinger is arbitration-eligible for a final time this winter, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive an $18.1MM salary if tendered a contract. Only Juan Soto has a higher arbitration projection, a testament to Bellinger’s early-career accomplishments. Those earned lofty salaries early in his career, and the arbitration system is designed so that salaries almost always escalate year-over-year.

However, Bellinger’s offensive production has evaporated over the past few seasons. He followed up his 47-homer MVP campaign with a slightly above-average showing (.239/.333/.455) in 2020. While that looked like a potential blip in an anomalous season, he’s seen a continued sharp drop-off at the plate. Bellinger hit .165/.240/.302 over 350 trips to the plate last year. He rebounded slightly this past season, but his .210/.265/.389 line across 550 plate appearances was still markedly worse than average.

Among 172 hitters with 800+ plate appearances over the past two seasons, Bellinger ranked dead last with a .256 on-base percentage. His .355 slugging mark is in the bottom ten. Bellinger’s 7.7% walk rate and 27.1% strikeout percentage are each worse than average, and his hard contact rate is down notably from its 2019 peak. Those extended struggles would seem to point towards Bellinger being non-tendered in lieu of such a large salary, but he’s been a strong plus outside the batter’s box. He swiped 14 bases in 17 attempts this past season and rated as an above-average baserunner overall. More importantly, he’s checked in as a plus defensive center fielder throughout his career, including a +5 runs above average from Statcast this season.

Neither Friedman nor Gomes made a definitive statement on the possibility of a non-tender, but Gomes generally praised Bellinger’s overall value. “Belli has had spurts of being really successful throughout the season,” the GM said. “I think elite defense has continued to be there, and we still think there’s (offensive) upside. So those are discussions we’re going to have moving forward as we look into what 2023 looks like.”

Friedman offered a similar sentiment when asked about the club’s $16MM option on third baseman Justin Turner. Friedman called Turner “a huge part of our success” but noted the front office needed more time to think through key roster decisions. Turner looked to be trending towards a $2MM buyout with a .256/.330/.403 showing in the first half of the season, but he made that a tough call for the front office by posting an excellent .319/.386/.503 line coming out of the All-Star Break.

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