Carlos Correa’s physical with the Mets has “raised concerns”, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Per the report, the concern centers on Correa’s surgically repaired lower right leg. Correa has agreed to a 12-year, $315MM deal with the Mets just days after a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants fell through over concerns over the physical.
More to come.
The Cubs are adding right hander Nick Neidert on a minor league deal, according to Robert Murray of Fansided. The deal includes opt-out clauses which Neidert can trigger on June 1 and July 1 of 2023.
Neidert, 26, made a solitary start for the Marlins last season, going five innings and giving up two runs. At Triple-A, he tossed 46 innings of 1.96 ERA ball, with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate. He was designated for assignment by the Marlins and became a free agent last month.
Originally drafted by the Mariners in the second round of the 2015 draft, Neidert was traded to Miami as part of a deal for Dee Strange-Gordon in 2017. He made his big league debut for Miami in the shortened 2020 campaign, tossing 8 1/3 innings of 5.40 ERA ball. He’d continue to serve as a depth piece for the Marlins moving between Triple-A and the majors, and since his 2020 debut has thrown 49 big league innings for a 4.59 ERA.
While he’s posted strong numbers in the minors, Neidert’s struggled to punch out batters in the big leagues, working to a 13.3% strikeout rate over his three seasons. Neidert throws a four-pitch mix, tossing a low-90s fastball alongside a slider, changeup and curveball. He still has one minor league option remaining.
The Pirates have made a handful of moves to bring in major league talent this winter, but one of the biggest storylines remains the potential departure of star outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds handed in a trade request on December 3, but at this point remains on the Bucs’ roster, with the team reportedly setting a high asking price for the 27-year-old. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi adds a bit more depth to that, reporting Pittsburgh wants a top starting pitcher to headline the return. Morosi cites the Dodgers’ Bobby Miller and the Blue Jays’ Ricky Tiedmann – both of whom are top-40 MLB prospects – as examples of the sort of prospect they want.
While both LA and Toronto could make sense as speculative fits for Reynolds, neither has been reported as in discussions with the Pirates. That’s not true of the Yankees though, and Morosi further reports that New York has been in contact with the Pirates over the past few weeks. The Yankees’ major remaining off-season need is a left-fielder so the switch-hitting Reynolds makes plenty of sense, especially given the free agent market has thinned out considerably following Andrew Benintendi and Michael Conforto finding new homes.
As Morosi notes, one roadblock to a deal could be Pittsburgh’s desire for a starting pitcher to headline the deal. The Yankees’ system is headlined by position player prospects such as Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza and Jasson Dominguez. Their top starting pitcher prospects, according to Baseball America, are Randy Vasquez, Will Warren and Drew Thorpe, but all three project as back-of-the-rotation types rather than the frontline starter Pittsburgh is seeking. Clayton Beeter shot up New York’s prospect charts after coming over from the Dodgers in the Joey Gallo trade and would be an intriguing name to watch, but unlikely to headline any deal.
A potential trade of Reynolds would help to free up the surplus of outfielders the Pirates have. Alternatively, as Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic writes, general manager Ben Cherington could package up one of his lesser-known outfielders with other prospects in a deal, possibly for a starting pitcher.
“We would still like to add a starting pitcher. That market’s been strong, but we continue to stay engaged with some free agents and trade opportunities. Both of those can be hard to speculate, in terms of how likely it is to line up. We’d also like to add another position player, if we can,” Cherington said.
As things stand, the Pirates are slated to go with some combination of Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Miguel Andujar and Connor Joe in the outfield at the major league level, with Ji Hwan Bae, Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba and Travis Swaggerty options as well, so it certainly makes sense that the Pirates could dip into that group to try and bolster another part of the roster.
Biertempfel’s report also provides some update on shortstop Oneil Cruz, who sustained an ankle injury playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic.
“He does have some swelling. He’s not gonna play right now and let that calm down. We’re going to try to get him to the States after the holidays, just to be sure about what’s going on. But all reports so far are that it’s a relatively minor thing. It should pass without being too much of an issue,” Cherington said.
While there’s nothing definitive there, it doesn’t seem like there’s too much concern over Cruz’ status from the Pirates. After belting 17 home runs and slashing .233/.294/.450 across 361 plate appearances, Cruz finished sixth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, and looks set to be Pittsburgh’s opening day shortstop in 2023.
Dec 24: The Cubs have officially announced the signing of Smyly. To make room on the 40-man roster, pitcher Erich Uelmen has been designated for assignment, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.
Dec 22, 8:01pm: The deal also allows Smyly to opt out at the end of next season, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Smyly will have to weigh a return trip to free agency against the $11MM remaining on the contract next offseason.
7:52pm: The Cubs are bringing back Drew Smyly, agreeing with the free agent starter on a two-year deal. It’s reportedly a $19MM guarantee for the Frontline client. Smyly will make successive salaries of $8MM and $8.5MM, and the contract contains at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 campaign.
Smyly returns after spending the 2022 season in Chicago. It was technically his second stint as a Cub, as he’d previously been a member of the organization in 2018. He spent that entire season rehabbing from a previous Tommy John surgery, though, and the Cubs dealt him to the Rangers over the 2018-19 offseason. After three years elsewhere, he returned to Chicago last winter on a $5.25MM guarantee.
The left-hander had a decent showing in 2022, working to a 3.47 ERA through 22 starts. He lost a month in the middle of the year to a left oblique strain but otherwise stayed healthy and absorbed 106 1/3 innings. He struck out a career-worst 20.4% of opponents but only walked 5.8% of batters faced. Smyly held opponents to a meager 86.7 MPH average exit velocity and induced swinging strikes on a solid 12.4% of his offerings. That quality per-pitch swinging strike rate could portend a future uptick in strikeouts. Smyly has punched out 23.2% of opponents over the course of his career, although he’s seen his lowest marks in the last two years.
Smyly doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, and his below-average ground-ball numbers have contributed to home run troubles in prior years. The longball wasn’t much of an issue this past season, though. He absolutely stifled left-handed opponents to the tune of a .191/.277/.326 line with two homers allowed through 101 plate appearances. Righties gave him some more trouble, taking him deep 14 times and posting a .258/.301/.448 mark in 346 trips to the dish.
The 33-year-old has had some injury troubles throughout his career, including the aforementioned Tommy John procedure. He’s spent time on the injured list each year since 2016, failing to reach 130 innings in any of the past six seasons. Smyly is not a prototypical innings eater, but he’s pitched to a decent 3.96 ERA in 259 1/3 frames going back to the start of 2020.
That solid rate production clearly appeals to president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office. Smyly finished the 2022 season strong and earned a multi-year deal as a result, with the guarantee narrowly topping the $17MM contract Jordan Lyles received from the Royals this week. The starting pitching market generally has been quite strong, and Smyly continues that trend with a $9.5MM average annual value to slot at the back of the Chicago rotation.
The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon to a four-year deal earlier in the offseason. He’ll join Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and presumably Smyly as locks for the season-opening starting staff. Kyle Hendricks figures to have a rotation job whenever he’s healthy, although his status is somewhat up in the air after his 2022 season was cut short by a shoulder issue. Players like Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian and Adrian Sampson could be in the mix throughout the season as depth options. Thompson held his own over 17 starts this past season, while Wesneski and Kilian are among the better pitching prospects in the Chicago organization.
Tacking on Smyly’s $8MM salary to the 2023 payroll ledger brings the team’s projected payroll around $179MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re now around $107MM in guarantees for the ’24 campaign. Chicago isn’t quite back to the $200MM+ range they reached towards the end of the last decade, but they’re notably past the $140MM – 150MM range of the last two seasons. The deal adds $9.5MM to the club’s luxury tax ledger in both 2023-24; they’re now up to approximately $213MM in CBT spending for next season, $20MM shy of the $233MM base threshold.
Jesse Rogers of ESPN first reported the Cubs and Smyly were closing in on a deal. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Cubs and Smyly had agreed to a two-year, $19MM contract and specified the financial breakdown.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Padres have added some pitching depth, signing right hander Aaron Brooks to a minor league deal, per Chris Hilburn-Treckle of Baseball America. Brooks was a free agent after being released by the Cardinals at the end of the season.
The 32-year-old pitched 9 1/3 innings for St Louis last season, working to a 7.71 ERA in that short stint. He worked mostly as a starter at Triple-A, making 13 starts and two relief appearances for a 5.56 ERA across 59 1/3 innings.
He’s bounced around the leagues a bit since making his debut for the Royals back in 2016, getting into big league games for Oakland, St Louis and Baltimore since. All told, he owns a 6.55 ERA across 180 innings in the majors. While that’s come with a respectable 6.8% walk rate, his 16.1% strikeout rate is comfortably below league average while his 44.1 HardHit% also sits the wrong side of the league average.
Brooks throws a low-90s fastball, and mixes that in with a slider and changeup, and an occasional curveball. He’ll provide a bit of minor league pitching depth for San Diego, and should he find some success, can be controlled for at least the next three seasons.
The Blue Jays announced that they have acquired outfielder Daulton Varsho from the Diamondbacks. Going the other way will be catching prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr..
For the Blue Jays, they’ve long been looking to add a left-handed complement to their right-handed heavy lineup. They’ve also been rumored all offseason to be willing to deal from their catching surplus in order to address other areas of their roster. With Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Moreno all jockeying for playing time, it seemed like they would use one of them to line up a deal with a catching-needy team. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have drawn much trade interest this offseason on their multiple outfielders. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Varsho are all left-handed and have various attributes, but it made for a logjam that many expected to be cleared via trade. Given those factors, the two teams have been frequently made for speculative trade partners, which has come to fruition with this deal.
Varsho, 26, was a top 100 prospect in the minors and debuted for the Diamondbacks in 2020. Though he was primarily a catcher, his natural athleticism has pushed him into more of an outfield role recently. It was reported towards the end of the 2022 campaign that the Diamondbacks were so impressed by his outfield work that they were planning to keep him there going forward. That was a fairly sensible conclusion to draw given his excellent defensive grades on the grass. He was given a +19 from Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield this year, along with an 18.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating and 17 Outs Above Average. All three of those figures were tops among all MLB outfielders this year, with the DRS tally tied with Michael A. Taylor. Varsho has seen time at all three outfield positions in his time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Jays plenty of flexibility in how he fits into their alignments.
The Blue Jays have largely been focused on run prevention this offseason, adding Chris Bassitt to their rotation, Erik Swanson to their bullpen and defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield. Now with Varsho, they’ve continued down that run prevention path by adding the best defensive outfielder of 2022. Varsho isn’t merely limited to being a glove-only contributor, however. He hit 27 home runs this year and stole 16 bases. He finished the season with a .235/.302/.443 batting line, good enough for a wRC+ of 106, indicating he was 6% above league average. Those contributions put together amounted to 4.6 wins above replacement for the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.
This move, and their other moves this offseason, have resulted in righties Gurriel and Teoscar Hernández being swapped out for lefties Kiermaier and Varsho. Gurriel and Hernandez are more productive at the plate but both are generally regarded as subpar defenders, while Kiermaier and Varsho are generally the inverse, though Varsho took a big step forward at the plate this year. Varsho and Kiermaier should slot into an outfield mix that also includes George Springer and Whit Merrifield. While last year’s alignment saw Springer as the top defensive option, flanked by two bat-first teammates, he now seems like the third best defender in Toronto’s outfield mix.
For the Diamondbacks, they are acquiring one of the top prospects in the sport, regardless of position, but certainly one of the top catching prospects. Moreno, 23 in February, is considered the No. 3 prospect in the game by both Baseball America and FanGraphs. He made his MLB debut in 2022 and carried himself well in over his first 73 plate appearances, hitting .319/.356/.377 for a wRC+ of 113. Spending most of the year in Triple-A, he hit .315/.386/.420 for a wRC+ of 120. Though the power part of his game could be lacking, all reports point to him being an excellent defender who has keen bat-to-ball skills. That’s borne out by his 16.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year and 11% rate in his MLB debut.
The club has used Carson Kelly, 28, as its primary catcher over the past four seasons, who has proved inconsistent in that time. His 2019 and 2021 seasons were both above average at the plate, as he hit double-digit home runs and walk rates, leading to a wRC+ of 107 in the former and 103 in the latter. However, his 2020 and 2022 seasons were on the low side, with the walks and the power both dipping. He posted a wRC+ of 70 in 2020 and just 73 in 2022. Defensively, he’s generally considered around average, with DRS have graded him at exactly zero thus far in his career.
Kelly still has two years of arbitration control remaining and likely has the catching job for now, given Moreno’s youth and limited experience. Moreno will also require some time to get to know Arizona’s pitching staff. But as Moreno continues to develop, it’s possible that Kelly will get squeezed out in time and become a trade chip himself before he reaches the open market.
As they subtract from their multitude of left-handed hitting outfielders, the Diamondbacks are bringing in a right-hander for more balance in Gurriel. The 29-year-old has spent the past five seasons with the Jays and has a career batting line of .285/.329/.468 and a wRC+ of 115. He doesn’t come with a noticeable platoon split, as he has an even 115 wRC+ against both righties and lefties. That makes him perfectly capable of playing every day for the Snakes. He is in his final year of control before becoming a free agent, which doesn’t make him a long-term solution in the desert, but he should give the club some time to continue to evaluate young players like Carroll and Thomas. If those younger players take steps forward and command everyday jobs and/or the Diamondbacks aren’t in contention in the middle of 2023, Gurriel would make for an intriguing trade candidate.
Defensively, Gurriel broke in as an infielder but was moved to left field in 2019 and has largely been there since, apart from the occasional turn at first base. Reviews on his glovework are mixed, as he has a +4 in the outfield from DRS, but a -4.7 from UZR and a -16 OAA. That limits his contributions somewhat but his bat has been above average in each of his five seasons thus far.
Financially, the Jays will be saving a bit of money on this deal as Gurriel will be making $5.4MM in 2023, his final year before free agency. Varsho, meanwhile, has four years of control remaining but has qualified for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player. He just squeaked in on that one, as his two years and 128 days of service time are an exact match for this year’s cutoff. He’s projected for a salary of $2.8MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and will get three further arb raises through 2026. Moreno, meanwhile, has yet to reach arbitration with just a couple of months of time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Diamondbacks six further years of control over his services.
The slight financial difference won’t matter much to the Diamondbacks but could have ramifications for the Jays. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s competitive balance tax figure as just a hair over the lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. Those numbers are unofficial and will surely change with future moves throughout the offseason and during the actual season. The arbitration salaries are also just estimates and will have an impact on the tally once they are cemented. But if the Jays continue to hover right around the luxury tax line, the small savings could determine which side of that line they finish on.
In the end, both clubs addressed their needs by dealing from positions of strength. The Jays acquired an all-around player in Varsho who can help them this year and in the future. In order to do so, they’ve subtracted from their prospect capital and catching surplus, as well as dealing an impending free agent in Gurriel. For the Diamondbacks, they’ve sent out a solid contributor but should still have a great outfield without him, and they’ve also loaded their farm for future success. They now have four of the top 20 prospects in baseball, with Moreno at #3 at Baseball America, followed by Carroll at #5, shortstop Jordan Lawlar at #11 and outfielder Druw Jones at #19.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Jays were close to landing Varsho. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported a deal was in place that involved Varsho and Moreno. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first had the involvement of Gurriel.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Dodgers brought back left-hander Adam Kolarek on a minor league contract earlier this month, as noted by Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. Los Angeles has also added southpaw James Jones on a non-roster pact.
Kolarek spent parts of the 2019-20 campaigns in L.A. Acquired from the Rays at the 2019 trade deadline, he’d spend the next year and a half with the Dodgers. The sidewinder was a quietly excellent bullpen piece, posting a 0.88 ERA through 30 2/3 innings. There’s some amount of good luck in any ERA that low, of course, but he held opponents to a .182/.222/.255 line as a situational matchup nightmare for left-handed hitters.
After the 2020 campaign, the Dodgers dealt Kolarek to Oakland as part of a four-player swap. That didn’t pan out as Oakland had hoped, with the Maryland product struggling over parts of two seasons. He allowed a 5.74 ERA in 26 2/3 innings in green and gold, with opponents teeing off at a .313/.403/.455 clip. After posting a 4.58 ERA through 15 outings this past season, he was designated for assignment in late June.
Kolarek finished the year with Oakland’s top affiliate in Las Vegas upon clearing waivers. He allowed a 6.10 ERA across 41 1/3 innings with the Aviators, a disappointing mark even after accounting for the extreme hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League. The 33-year-old continued to induce grounders at an elite clip, though, and he held left-handed batters to a .234/.311/.319 line in Triple-A. The Dodgers will take a low-risk flier to see if he can recapture some of his previous success and eventually reclaim a situational role in the relief corps.
Jones may be better known for his time as an outfielder with the Mariners from 2014-15. An elite runner, he didn’t hit well enough to hold an MLB spot despite stealing 27 bases in 108 games as a rookie. After a rough season in Triple-A in 2016, Jones converted to pitching. He spent a few years pitching in the Rangers farm system, the last couple mostly at Triple-A.
Now 34, Jones continues to work in hopes of getting back to the majors. He has not yet cracked the highest level as a pitcher, thanks largely to scattershot command. The Brooklyn native struck out an above-average 28.8% of the batters he faced through 16 Triple-A appearances this year, but that came with an untenable 19.7% walk rate. The Dodgers were nevertheless intrigued enough by his raw arsenal to give him another minor league opportunity.
A couple players recently designated for assignment have gone unclaimed on waivers:
The Royals are signing reliever Nick Wittgren to a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). He’ll receive an invitation to MLB Spring Training.
Wittgren has pitched at the MLB level in each of the last seven seasons. The Purdue product spent three years apiece in Miami and Cleveland between 2016-21, typically posting solid results while soaking up low-leverage innings. Wittgren put up an ERA of 3.14 or lower in three of his first four campaigns, showing strong control and typically missing bats at a slightly above-average clip. Home runs became an increasing issue during his time in Cleveland, though, and he surrendered nearly two longballs per nine innings en route to a 5.05 ERA in 2021.
The Guardians outrighted him off their 40-man roster at the end of the 2021 season. He spent most of the winter in free agency but caught on with the Cardinals during Spring Training on a big league contract. That deal guaranteed him $1.2MM and a season-opening bullpen spot.
Unfortunately for St. Louis, Wittgren’s struggles during his final year in Cleveland were only magnified with the Cardinals. He was tagged for a 5.90 ERA across 29 outings. Wittgren got the longball in check but saw his ability to miss bats vanish. He struck out only 12.7% of opponents for St. Louis, seven percentage points lower than his previous personal-low mark. In early July, the Cardinals released him. He sat out the remainder of the 2022 campaign and will try to work his way back to the majors with their in-state rivals next spring.
Wittgren doesn’t throw especially hard, averaging only 91.4 MPH on his fastball this past season. He doesn’t have the kind of power arsenal that usually plays in high-leverage work, but he’s walked fewer than 7% of batters faced as a big leaguer. Kansas City hasn’t made any major league additions to their bullpen so far this offseason. Their relievers ranked 27th in the majors with a 4.66 ERA this year.
The Yankees recently signed a number of players to minor league contracts, as reported by Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. Among those that haven’t previously been covered at MLBTR: left-handers Tanner Tully and Nick Ramirez, righty Ryan Weber and infielder Jamie Westbrook.
Tully had spent his entire career in the Cleveland system. A 26th round pick in 2016, he worked his way to the majors for the first time this year. Tully appeared out of Terry Francona’s bullpen three times, allowing four runs in six innings. He spent the bulk of the season at Triple-A Columbus, where he started 24 of 28 outings. Through 122 innings, the Ohio State product put up a 4.72 ERA with a modest 18.5% strikeout percentage but an excellent 4.9% walk rate.
The 28-year-old doesn’t throw hard, averaging just under 91 MPH on his fastball during his MLB time. He’s a quality strike-thrower who has gotten average or better grounder rates in the minors of late. He’ll presumably open the year at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and serve as rotation or long relief depth.
That’s a role with which Weber is also familiar. He spent the 2022 campaign in the Yankees organization, shuttling on and off their roster whenever the club needed to cover some innings. The 32-year-old made five appearances, all in relief. He allowed just one run across 10 2/3 innings with a trio of strikeouts and a walk. That marked his eighth consecutive year logging some big league action, and he has a 5.02 ERA across 177 2/3 career frames.
Like Tully, Weber is a soft-tossing control specialist. He consistently racks up grounders on over half the batted balls he allows, including a robust 53.5% rate in 39 2/3 frames for Scranton this past season. Weber walked just 3% of opponents with the RailRiders, albeit with a 16.5% strikeout rate.
Ramirez, 33, adds some left-handed relief depth to the mix. He appeared in the big leagues in each season between 2019-21, suiting up with the Tigers and Padres. Between the two clubs, he posted a 4.55 ERA with a 20.4% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk percentage across 110 2/3 innings. Ramirez spent the entire 2022 campaign working out of the bullpen with the Mariners highest affiliate in Tacoma. He had a nice season, working to a 2.93 ERA with a 23.7% strikeout percentage and 46% ground-ball rate through 55 1/3 frames. That wasn’t enough to crack an excellent Seattle bullpen, but he’ll try to work his way back to the majors in the Bronx.
Westbrook has yet to play in the big leagues. The 27-year-old has played almost a decade in the minors, spending parts of four seasons at Triple-A. He looked like to be under consideration for an MLB call when the Tigers acquired him from the Brewers in an April trade. That proved not to be, as the former fifth-round draftee spent the year at Triple-A Toledo. Westbrook hit .248/.349/.377 across 499 plate appearances, showing solid plate discipline without much power. He’s primarily a second baseman but has experience in the corner outfield; he’ll add some defensive flexibility to the upper levels of the system.
