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The S&P 500 has popped approximately 67% from its bear-market lows at 3577 on October 12, 2022. There was some concern that this bull market might falter, but it surpassed the 20%-gain mark back in June 2023 and then established a new high in January 2024. Yes, there have been some wobbly steps along the way, due to concerns over high inflation, high interest rates, and the risk of a recession. But the market seems to have settled down as the economy continues to grow and inflation remains under control. What can investors expect going forward from a bull market? We studied the 13 bull markets that have occurred since the end of World War II. On average, the S&P 500 gained 164% during these 13 periods, which averaged 57 months in duration. We also note that recent bull markets have generated higher returns over longer periods of time. On average, the five bull markets since 1980 have seen stocks advance about 240% over a period of 70 months. The bull market prior to the pandemic carried on for 11 years, during which stocks rose 500%. It is worth pointing out, though, that the 2009-2020 bull market began with stocks deeply depressed on valuation, whereas stocks are already near fair value in the current market environment. Even so, if rates continue to head lower on mild inflation news, earnings growth accelerates, and the economy can avoid a recession, then this new bull market, led by the performance of disruptive technology companies, could have more room to run.

The year 2024 is shaping up to be another spectacular time for equity investors. As opposed to many years, it seems like all you had to do in 2024 was throw a dart at a major index board and you came out a winner. It sure is nice when good news is spread around and not concentrated in just one industry or sector. Once again, the mega-cap indices outperformed -- but smaller-cap stocks also did well. Some of the small-cap indices even broke out to all-time highs for the first time in three years. The Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (XLG) is leading, with a surge of 32%. Close behind is the S&P 100 (OEX +29%), the Nasdaq (+27%), and the S&P 500 (+26%). Next up are the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ +24%), S&P MidCap 400 (MDY +22%), Russell 200 (IWM +21%), NYSE (+20%), Dow Jones Industrials (+19%), and the S&P Small Cap 600 (SML +16%). Strength has also been broad, with all 11 sectors higher, led by Financial (XLF +38%), Communication Services (XLC +36%), Utilities (XLU +34%), Industrials (XLI +27%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +24%), and Information Technology (XLK +21%). With a year like this, it's no surprise that sentiment is heavily tilted toward optimism. That can be the case for a surprisingly long time. Most investors are right during the main parts of bull and bear markets, but wrong at major turning points. One worrisome read is the major-index combined hedger (smart money) futures position. Hedgers have moved to an extremely bearish position. That tells is that the trend will be your friend in 2025, until it isn't. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)