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Economic News and Analysis

The latest news and analysis about the health of the US economy.

Oil Stabilizes Ahead of OPEC+ Supply Meeting as Volatility Drops

(Bloomberg) -- Oil was little changed as traders watched for clues on OPEC+’s supply plans ahead of a key meeting this Thursday.Most Read from BloombergRiyadh Metro Partially Opens in Bid to Ease City’s Traffic JamsAs Wars Rage, Cities Face a Dark New Era of Urban DestructionBrent crude traded near $72 a barrel after ending just 1 cent lower on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate above $68, as recent lackluster price action sent a gauge of implied volatility to its lowest in about two months. T

Bloomberg 24 minutes ago

More Rate Cuts Likely Needed ‘Over Time,’ Fed’s Williams Says

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said officials will likely need to lower rates further to move policy to a neutral stance now that risks to inflation and employment have become more balanced. Most Read from BloombergRiyadh Metro Partially Opens in Bid to Ease City’s Traffic JamsAs Wars Rage, Cities Face a Dark New Era of Urban DestructionBut Williams stopped short of saying whether he would back a rate cut when policymakers gather later this month, adding

Fed Officials Keep Options Open for December Rate Decision

(Bloomberg) -- Three Federal Reserve officials on Monday made clear they expect the US central bank to continue cutting interest rates over the next year, but stopped short of saying they are committed to making the next reduction later this month.Most Read from BloombergRiyadh Metro Partially Opens in Bid to Ease City’s Traffic JamsAs Wars Rage, Cities Face a Dark New Era of Urban DestructionFed Governor Christopher Waller, addressing a conference in Washington, said he’s inclined to vote to lo

Fed's Williams eyes further cuts as price pressures cool further

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday the U.S. central bank is likely to lower its interest rate target further over time as inflation pressures continue to cool. “Monetary policy remains in restrictive territory to support the sustainable return of inflation to our 2 percent goal,” Williams said in the text of a speech to be delivered before a gathering of the Queens Chamber of Commerce, held in New York.

A top Fed official leans toward December rate cut but says it depends on economic data

A top Federal Reserve official said Monday that he is leaning toward supporting an interest rate cut when the Fed meets in two weeks but that evidence of persistent inflation before then could cause him to change that view. Speaking at George Washington University, Christopher Waller, a key member of the Fed's Board of Governors, said he was confident that inflation is headed lower and that the central bank will likely keep reducing its key rate, which affects many consumer and business loans. “At present, I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting," Waller said in his remarks to a conference held by the American Institute for Economic Research.

Fed's Waller says he is inclined to cut rates in December

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, whose views are often a bellwether for U.S. monetary policy, said on Monday that with inflation still forecast to fall to 2% he is inclined "at present" to support another interest rate cut later this month. The comments from a key US rate-setter led investors to boost expectations for a rate cut at the Fed's December 17-18 meeting to nearly 75%, and pushed down yields on the two-year Treasury note. "Policy is still restrictive enough that an additional cut at our next meeting will not dramatically change the stance of monetary policy and allow ample scope to later slow the pace of rate cuts, if needed, to maintain progress toward our inflation target," Waller told a central bank symposium organized by the American Institute for Economic Research.

Fed’s Bostic Keeping ‘Options Open’ for December Rate Decision

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he’s undecided on whether an interest-rate cut is needed this month, but still believes officials should continue lowering rates over the coming months.Most Read from BloombergRiyadh Metro Partially Opens in Bid to Ease City’s Traffic JamsAs Wars Rage, Cities Face a Dark New Era of Urban Destruction“The risks to achieving the committee’s dual mandates of maximum employment and price stability have shifted such that they

Fed's Bostic: Base case remains for inflation to continue falling

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he has an open mind about whether to cut interest rates again at the Fed's December meeting, with upcoming data on jobs important in shaping the decision. "There is a lot of uncertainty," Bostic said in comments to reporters. In an essay also released on Monday, Bostic said his base case remains that inflation will continue to fall to the Fed's 2% target, though it remains an open question how far and how fast interest rates should be reduced to ensure that happens while avoiding any undue damage to the job market.

Trump's low oil price promise is a risk and a boon for emerging markets

Donald Trump has promised to "drill, baby, drill" to halve energy costs, a plan that sends shivers through the governments of emerging market oil producers anxious about dollar earnings and fills poorer importing countries with hope. In practical terms, Trump, the incoming president of the world's biggest oil producer, cannot fully control prices. The United States has limited influence over producer group OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, and it does not have a state oil company Trump can order to increase output.

Fed's Powell may have made US monetary policy boring again

For much of the past 17 years the Federal Reserve has been the central player in U.S. economic policy, throwing multi-trillion-dollar safety nets under the financial system, offering nearly a decade of ultra-cheap money, jumping redlines during the COVID-19 pandemic, and delving more into areas like equity and climate change. But that expansive role has now shrunk to one of terse policy statements, a meat-and-potatoes debate over interest rates, a declining stash of bonds, and a growing possibility that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may be remembered both as the man who got the U.S. through the economic crisis triggered by the pandemic and the one who made central banking boring again. Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was on the policymaking team that saw the central bank's role expand during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, watched as it mushroomed again during the pandemic and sees it now morphing back into something more normal.

Lula Ignores Aides and Sparks Market Rout That Threatens Economy

(Bloomberg) -- The dangers were crystal clear. Top economic aides to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had pointed them out to him again and again: Any moves to water down the fiscal-austerity plan in the works will spark a selloff — another selloff — across Brazilian financial markets.Most Read from BloombergRiyadh Metro Partially Opens in Bid to Ease City’s Traffic JamsAs Wars Rage, Cities Face a Dark New Era of Urban DestructionAnd yet, Lula decided he did not care. He ordered his staff to