Kamala Harris is running for president on two economic platforms. The first is the record of the Biden-Harris administration. The second is her own set of prescriptions for fixing what voters don’t like about the Biden-Harris record.
It might just work. The vice president enjoys lucky timing, given that the biggest economic woe of the Biden years—inflation—is getting back to normal just as crucial undecided voters are making up their minds. And Harris’s own plans are clearly meant to plug the holes where voters think Biden failed.
On paper, the economy seems headed for the “soft landing” economists have been hoping for. Inflation continues to moderate, with the July inflation rate coming in at 2.9%, the lowest since March 2021. Inflation has dropped sharply from the peak of 9% in June 2022, suggesting the Federal Reserve’s sharp interest rate hikes have worked as intended to curtail rising prices. Investors now think it’s nearly certain the Fed will start slowly cutting interest rates in September, giving borrowers a much-needed break.
Consumer spending is holding up. Retail sales in July were much stronger than economists expected, led by robust car sales. The latest data basically erases worries that popped up after a spotty jobs report for July showed signs of weakness. A mini market panic followed in early August. But that sell-off has completely reversed, with stocks up for the month, as investors decide maybe everything is fine after all.
Here's a roundup of recent insights from leading forecasters:
Conference Board, Aug. 16: “Welcome to the soft landing.”
Capital Economics, Aug. 16: “The data released this week was all consistent with a soft landing.”
Goldman Sachs, Aug. 14: “We expect a modest growth pickup in [the second half] reflecting consumer spending growth, easing financial conditions, and rebound in inventory investment.”
Needless to say, all of this is not enough. Consumers remain gloomy, miffed about rents and food prices that are still elevated, high interest rates that make big purchases unaffordable, and chronic burdens such as costly child and medical care. This is where Harris now offers a reboot, promising to fix what Biden apparently couldn’t.
Harris’s economic plan would tackle housing affordability with a new $25,000 tax credit for first-time buyers and incentives to add 3 million new homes to the national supply. She’d give Americans a break on medical debt and back a $6,000 tax credit for families with newborns. She also wants the government to ban “price gouging” on groceries and go after food conglomerates that supposedly extort shoppers.

