Observatory of Economic Complexity - OEC

🚢 When the Strait of Hormuz is mentioned, the focus tends to go straight to oil. But there’s another layer that is just as critical for global stability: fertilizers. A significant share of global fertilizer exports originates in the Gulf, and many countries depend on these inputs to sustain agricultural production. That dependency is not evenly distributed. In several cases, supply is concentrated among a small number of partners, increasing exposure to disruptions on key transit routes. This dynamic is explored in a recent piece by The Guardian, which uses OEC data to map fertilizer trade flows and highlight which countries are most reliant on Gulf exports. Looking at trade through this lens helps make visible how upstream shocks can cascade into food systems and, ultimately, prices. Check the full article in the comments

🛢️ Which Countries Are Most Exposed to the Middle East Oil Crisis? The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted over 10 million barrels per day of oil supply, the largest disruption in the history of the global oil market. Some countries are far more vulnerable than others, depending on how much of their energy they import and from where. The New York Times just published a powerful interactive piece exploring the oil crisis, and used OEC to build the visualizations that bring this data to life. Explore the full article in the comments 👇 #TradeData #OilCrisis #DataVisualization

🇨🇳 Software as a Path to Economic Diversification: China Leads the Way. When we try to measure how “complex” a country’s economy is, we are usually inclined to look at what it exports, its patents, or which industries are employing people. However, these indicators have a major blind spot: software. Code crosses borders through cloud services and downloads, not through customs. Service trade categories are too broad to distinguish basic IT outsourcing from cutting-edge development. And open-source repositories aren't discrete tradeable goods. A new paper in Research Policy (Juhász, Wachs, Kaminski & Hidalgo, 2026) tackles this by building a Software Economic Complexity Index from GitHub data. Rather than looking at individual programming languages, they cluster languages that are frequently used together in repositories (HTML/CSS/JavaScript), a data science stack (Python/Jupyter Notebook), or low-level systems tooling (C/Assembly/Makefile). They then measure which countries have a revealed comparative advantage in which clusters, and apply the standard economic complexity method to rank nations by the diversity and sophistication of their software ecosystems. According to this measure, China tops the 2024 ranking, narrowly ahead of Hong Kong and Germany. The US comes in at #5. There are also some surprising entries: Russia ranks #15, and countries like Indonesia and Pakistan score relatively high in software complexity despite ranking much lower on traditional trade-based measures of complexity, suggesting the digital economy is reshaping which countries are perceived as "complex." This software complexity measure correlates positively with GDP per capita, negatively with income inequality, and negatively with emissions intensity, even after controlling for trade, patent, and research-based complexity. According to the authors, software offers a unique path for economic diversification because, unlike manufacturing, it doesn't rely on heavy physical infrastructure or natural resources.

At the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), we’ve spent years helping people explore and understand global trade data. But recently, the way people interact with data is changing. More teams are building AI agents to generate analysis, answer questions, and create insights automatically. This shift exposes a core limitation: Agents are often asked to produce answers without direct access to reliable, structured data. They can reason, but the data layer behind that reasoning is still fragmented. So we built something better: Introducing BotMarket. BotMarket is a structured data layer for AI agents, designed to give them direct access to high-quality datasets so their outputs are grounded in real data. Instead of relying on incomplete sources, agents can now: → query structured datasets → generate analysis backed by real information → produce more reliable and traceable outputs We’re starting from the data we know best: global trade, economic indicators, and related datasets, with the goal of expanding this into a broader ecosystem over time. Ultimately, your agent is only as good as the data it can access. If you’re building with AI agents or working with data-driven workflows, we’d love for you to explore BotMarket and see how it fits into your process.

🇨🇳 China’s economic presence in Latin America continues to grow, reshaping trade dynamics across the region and drawing increasing attention from Washington. A recent analysis by CNN en Español examines how China has expanded its footprint in Latin America through trade, investment, and infrastructure, while the United States seeks to reinforce its influence in the hemisphere. The article explores how this geopolitical competition is playing out across supply chains, strategic industries, and diplomatic relationships. Thanks to CNN for trusting us as a reliable source of trade data to illustrate how China’s commercial ties with Latin American economies have evolved over time. Read the full article in the comments ⬇️

🇨🇳 🇩🇪 The recent meeting between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing highlighted a complex transitional phase in bilateral relations. For Beijing, maintaining open European markets remains an economic priority as it navigates a prolonged domestic property crisis. For Germany, the focus has shifted toward addressing what leadership views as an uneven playing field in industrial competition. The economic context of Merz's push for "fair competition" becomes clearer when examining recent trade volumes. As of 2025, Germany remains China's largest export destination in Europe, absorbing $118 billion in goods. Consequently, China is Germany’s absolute largest source of imports, accounting for 12.7% of all inbound trade, considerably higher than the United States, which accounts for 7%. The most notable shifts are occurring within sectors that historically represent the backbone of the German economy. Between 2022 and 2025, Chinese imports of electric batteries into Germany surged from $7.99 billion to $13.6 billion. Over the same three-year period, Chinese automobile imports nearly doubled, growing from $1.31 billion to $2.5 billion. While Chinese manufacturing continues to gain market share in Europe, the reverse trade flow has noticeably contracted. Compared to 2022, China imported $18.6 billion less from Germany in 2025. This growing disparity provides crucial context for the summit. As Chinese exports in automotive and battery technologies accelerate, traditional German carmakers, chemical producers, and machinery manufacturers are facing intensified global competition. This shift has contributed to a steady erosion of market share for German firms and subsequent industrial job losses domestically, making trade policy a central focus of Germany's diplomatic engagement with Beijing.

🇺🇸 🇮🇪 The "Ozempic Effect" and the New Economic Bridge Between Ireland and the U.S. A fascinating narrative is unfolding in the latest trade data between Ireland and the United States, driven mainly by the global surge in GLP-1 medications. By the end of 2025, the United States solidified its position as Ireland’s dominant export partner, now accounting for 44% of the country’s record $289 billion in total exports. In just three years, U.S. imports from Ireland have shot up by nearly 73%, a growth curve that looks less like a steady climb and more like a vertical launch. While many observers have dubbed this the "Ozempic Effect," the impact extends across the entire GLP-1 landscape, benefiting brands like Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Zepbound. This demand has led pharmaceutical giants like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to establish and expand their primary manufacturing bases in Ireland, effectively turning the country into the indispensable "pharmacy" for the American healthcare market. The data clearly tells the story: the specific HS6 trade category for "Other Protein & Polypeptide Hormones" (which includes these blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes treatments) has seen its export value increase since 2021. These hormone-related products now account for the lion's share of Irish exports and serve as a powerful example of how a breakthrough in medical science can fundamentally shift the economic tether between two nations, making a small island the most critical link in the American pharmaceutical supply chain.

India–U.S. Trade Deal in Numbers: Why a $500B Import Pledge Is Triggering Protests Protests are now forming across India, and they aren’t just about tariffs; they’re about autonomy, leverage, and how fast a country can be pushed to rewire its trade structure. Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump dropped a punitive 50% tariff on Indian exports, later settling at 18%. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi framed this as progress, but the price attached is what’s worrying farmers. India is now expected to intend to buy $500B of U.S. goods over five years. Let’s put that into perspective with current trade data. In 2025, the United States was already India’s largest export destination ($85.7B). On the import side, the U.S. ranks fourth, accounting for just 6.56% of India’s imports (about $45.1B total). China remains dominant as an import origin, with $ 113B. A $500B pledge would effectively mean doubling India’s U.S. imports. 🇮🇳 ⬅️ 🇺🇸 What does India currently buy from the U.S.? Mostly crude petroleum ($7.57B, ~18%). Then far behind: aircraft parts (~$2.13B) and gold (~$1.72B). Agriculture, now at the center of farmer protests, is relatively small: about $1.4B in 2025, over 80% almonds, plus pistachios (~$100M). Soybean oil, also mentioned in the deal, totaled $213M. Farmers' reaction: It’s not about today’s volumes; it’s about what those numbers could become under a massive import commitment, especially after confusing signals about Russian oil and sudden edits to the White House fact sheet. Currently, India already depends heavily on the U.S. as an export market, but not as an import partner. This deal might accelerate that dependency unevenly, and the potential asymmetry is what’s now spilling into the streets.

🟢 2024 Global Trade Data is LIVE and FREE! We have just completed a massive update across our entire platform. You can now access full trade data through 2024 for thousands of specific products and country pages. High-quality economic data shouldn't be gated. We want to be a valuable resource for:  🏛️ Public Policy Makers making data-driven decisions.  🎓 Academics researching the latest global trends.  🏢 Companies analyzing market movements. 🌏 Citizens who want to understand the world economy. Explore the updated profiles today and start analyzing trade flows without barriers.