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VFC designs, produces, and distributes more than 30 brands of lifestyle apparel, footwear, and related products. The company's largest brands are Vans, The North Face, Timberland, and Dickies. Its products are marketed to consumers at specialty stores, department stores, national chains, mass merchants, and VF-operated stores and through e-commerce sites. Headquartered in Denver, the company has about 35,000 employees. The shares are a component of the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index.

With unemployment of just 4% and 4Q24 Personal Consumption posting its strongest gain of the year (up 4.2%), the U.S. economy is on a better trajectory than we expected. We are boosting our 2025 GDP forecast to 2.3% growth from 2.1% and we are initiating a 2026 forecast of 2.0%. We are raising our 1Q25 growth forecast to 3.0% from 1.7%. Yes, there are things to worry about, including nettlesome inflation, mortgage rates near 7%, and persistent economic pressure on lower-income households. But spending on durable goods jumped 12% in the fourth quarter on top of 7.6% growth in 3Q. Another sign of consumer strength is that holiday sales rose a strong 4%, beating our estimate of 3%. Our quarterly GDP estimates for 2025 are 3.0%, 1.8%, 2.2%, and 2.2%. For the year, we expect consumer spending to moderate. We expect State and Local government spending to slow slightly and Federal spending to slow notably. With consumers still strong, we still expect imports to exceed exports, creating a drag on GDP. We expect Private Domestic Investment will improve to 2.4% growth in 4Q25 from a 5.6% decline in 4Q24. We expect investment in Intellectual Property will remain strong and hope that the prospect for a friendly tax environment and easier regulations will spur investment. Our quarterly GDP estimates for 2026 are 2.0%, 1.9%, 2.1%, and 2.2%. We expect consumers to pull their weight. We expect the trade balance and government spending to be a drag on growth. We are looking for housing to grow faster than GDP and are hoping that investments in Nonresidential Structures and Equipment will also drive growth. Two indicators driven by a broad array of timely data support our assessment that the economy is healthy and growing. On February 7, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP Nowcast was estimating 1Q growth of 2.9%. On February 7, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Staff Nowcast for 1Q called for 3.12% growth.

Despite volatile headlines, price action has tightened up since mid-January. For the S&P 500 (SPX), price is sitting in the top half of a range going back to early November. While certainly not textbook or picture perfect, the index could be tracing out a complex and non-typical bullish cup-with-handle formation. To complete the pattern, a strong break above the all-time closing high of 6,119 is needed -- preferably with some immediate follow-through action. The current trading range is about 355 points wide, so a breakout could open the door for an initial measured move to the 6,300 area and possibly higher. Since mid-January, the price range for the SPX has constricted to about 200 points and some of the short- to intermediate-term moving averages have started to tighten. Price at the top of a range along with slim volatility often is a bullish sign that an index or individual stock is setting up for a breakout move. The SPX also is in a favorable spot based on price channels and volatility bands. On the daily chart, price lies between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands and is in the same spot regarding the 20-day price channels. On the weekly chart, the SPX has been trending between the middle and upper weekly Bollinger Bands and between the middle and upper 20-week price channels on a closing basis since November 2023. The QQQ has seen less strength, trading between the weekly Bollinger Bands and weekly price channels since early September.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.